| President Trump is rolling the dice, making the 2018 midterm elections a referendum on his ability to carry the Republican Party to victory against the odds. In a string of Wednesday tweets, the president sought to reassure his supporters that they cannot lose as long as he’s in charge. The tweets came in the aftermath of a House special election in Ohio that left the GOP candidate clinging to a small lead in a district the president won by about 11 points in 2016. With election forecasters increasingly confident that Democrats are poised to take over the House, the president insisted that conventional wisdom is wrong and that a “red wave” is building that will protect GOP majorities in both chambers. Trump’s contrarian view of the midterm elections pits him against the longtime strategists, pollsters and experts in Washington who largely swung and missed on his shocking 2016 presidential victory. The president’s message to supporters is that if he helped Republicans buck history once, why can’t he do it again? 
© Twitter 
© Twitter Trump is focusing on two data points that he believes are being ignored by the news media. First, Republicans have won eight of the 10 special House elections since Trump came into office. 
© Twitter One of the House losses was a bad one – Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pa.) defeated Republican Rick Saccone in a district Trump carried by 20 points in 2016. Republicans also lost a special election in the Senate to replace Attorney General Jeff Sessions in Alabama. But other than that, Democrats have closed the gap in safely GOP districts, Trump argues, but they haven’t shown they can win. Republicans are skeptical of this argument. In the Ohio special election, Trump visited the district to campaign for Republican Troy Balderson to boost turnout in the closing days before the election. Outside groups also dumped millions of dollars to pull Balderson across the finish line in a district Republicans have held for most of the past century. "[I] cannot describe to you how amazing it was that the race was close." – Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) who represented the district from 1983 to 2001 Trump won’t be able to campaign for every House Republican in Balderson’s position – there are nearly six dozen of them. And GOP outside groups, like the Congressional Leadership Fund, which spent nearly $3 million on the race, can’t afford to spend that heavily in every district. “This remains a very tough political environment and moving forward, we cannot expect to win tough races when our candidate is being outraised.” – Congressional Leadership Fund executive director Corry Bliss The Hill: Democrats eyeing smaller magic number for House majority. The Hill: Democrats see wider path to House after tight Ohio race. Second, Trump believes he has the golden touch. The president has waded into the GOP House primaries to support more than a dozen candidates. None has lost, including the five he backed on Tuesday, although two of those races remain too close to call. Trump did support former Sen. Luther Strange (R-Ala.), defeated in last year’s Alabama Senate primary against Roy Moore. 
© Twitter The Hill’s Jordan Fabian and Reid Wilson have an inside look here at whether Trump’s primaries winning streak will continue in the general election. The case study will be Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R), backed by Trump in the gubernatorial primary despite warnings from Republicans that incumbent Gov. Jeff Colyer (R) was the better general election bet. The Hill: Trump’s endorsements cement power but come with risks. The New York Times: Trump claims election night credit but it’s not that simple. Meanwhile, the verdict from election experts and Republicans following Tuesday’s special election was decisive: It’s time for the GOP to panic. “There’s a real chance that [Democrats] not only win the House, but they win it by 10 or 12 more seats than they need.” - Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), to The New York Times. They see GOP House members retiring in record numbers; Democratic challengers outraising GOP incumbents; an enthusiasm gap in favor of liberals; and history showing that the party in power will lose seats during the sitting president’s first term. On Wednesday, election analyst Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics moved another four GOP-held seats toward Democrats. The marquee race in that group involves Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), the No. 4 Republican in the House, whose race is now rated a toss-up. Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray emails: “Democratic voter enthusiasm and moderate Republican discontent with Trump have made these special elections very competitive when they should have been cakewalks for the GOP. Imagine what will happen if these trends continue in November in districts where Republicans already were facing a challenge. And as of right now, our polling suggests that’s exactly what the landscape will look like.” We’ll find out on Nov. 6 whether Trump or the experts got it right. | 
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