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2018年10月5日 星期五

The Hill’s Morning Report — Senate to vote to end debate on Kavanaugh nomination | Hundreds arrested as protesters swarm Capitol Hill | Vote hangs on three Republicans and one Democrat | GOP senator may miss vote for daughter’s wedding | Trump to campaign for Kobach in Kansas | U.S. tensions run hot with Russia, China | Russians indicted for global hacking campaign | Nobel Peace Prize winners |

The Hill's Morning Report
 

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Welcome to The Hill's Morning Report and happy Friday. This daily email gets you up to speed on the most important developments in politics and policy, plus trends to watch. (CLICK HERE to subscribe!) Jonathan Easley is hosting solo this week while co-creator Alexis Simendinger is out of town. Find him on Twitter @joneasley.

 

📺 Hill.TV's "Rising" program, starting at 8 a.m., features interviews with Women's March leader Rachel Carmona and MoveOn.org director Ben Wikler on the protests surrounding Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Elin Suleymanov, the Ambassador of the Republic of Azerbaijan, talks Iran and Russia, and DC United CEO Jason Levien gives a peek at the new stadium. http://thehill.com/hilltv

 

 

Call the roll.

A procedural vote to end debate on President Trump's nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court will take place at 10:30 a.m.

The Hill: Bitter partisan battle over Kavanaugh enters final chapter.

If Kavanaugh passes that procedural hurdle, a final floor vote could take place as soon as Saturday.

There's a twist:

 

The Associated Press: Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) will be at his daughter's wedding this weekend whether there's a vote or not.

 

If Daines misses the confirmation vote, than Republicans can't afford any defections if all Democrats vote no.

 

Republicans are publicly expressing confidence, but they don't have the votes yet and the situation is volatile after another chaotic and emotionally draining day on Capitol Hill.

Sens. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) remain undecided. Republicans need two of those four to vote yes for Kavanaugh to be confirmed.

Writing in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that ran last night, Kavanaugh defended his reputation, but also acknowledged that he said things "I should not have said" in emotional public testimony last week.

 

Kavanaugh: I am an independent, impartial judge.

The Washington Post (editorial board): Vote no on Kavanaugh.

There appeared to be some positive movement for the GOP on Thursday after lawmakers viewed the supplemental background check the FBI conducted into allegations made by Christine Blasey Ford, who has accused Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her when the two were in high school in 1982.

There doesn't appear to be any new bombshell revelations or smoking gun corroborations of Ford's testimony in the FBI report. Flake and Collins left a briefing on the report signaling they were satisfied with the FBI's work.

"It appears to be a very thorough investigation." – Collins

"Thus far we've seen no new credible corroboration, no new corroboration at all." – Flake

The Hill: Kavanaugh's path to nomination begins to solidify.

Murkowski and Manchin, who were hounded on Thursday by reporters and protesters alike, spent several hours meeting with sexual assault survivors but did not give an indication as to how they might vote.

In addition to the soul searching, Manchin has political concerns to consider as he seeks reelection in a state Trump carried by more than 40 points in 2016.

Manchin is running strong against Republican Patrick Morrisey, but polls show voters in The Mountain State support Kavanaugh's nomination.

 

Another red-state Democrat up for reelection this year, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), announced Thursday that she'd vote against Kavanaugh.

 

That's a massive political gamble for Heitkamp in a state Trump carried by more than 30 points in 2016. Two recent polls show Heitkamp has fallen behind Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) by double digits in her reelection bid.

 

"[The Kavanaugh hearings] proved to be perhaps the greatest political gift I've received in some time." – Cramer

 

The Hill's Reid Wilson has a scoop on that race:

 

            "The National Republican Senatorial Committee has canceled some of its advertising buys in North Dakota, a sign of confidence that Cramer has pulled sufficiently ahead of Heitkamp."


Friday's floor action comes after another dramatic day on Capitol Hill.

Protesters swarmed the Hart Senate Office Building. More than 300 people were arrested. And in dozens of cities across the country, anti-Kavanaugh protesters laid in the streets spelling out "stop" with their bodies.

The Associated Press: Day of chaos and consequence before vote on Kavanaugh.
The Hill: Scores of Kavanaugh protesters arrested after descending on Senate building.

Senators gave passionate speeches for and against Kavanaugh or lamented a breakdown in process in the upper chamber.

 

Furious Democrats accused Republicans of interfering to limit the scope of the FBI's investigation, describing the process as "bullshit" or "a cover-up" or a "sham."

 

© Twitter

 

© Twitter

 

Republicans claimed that the FBI report cleared Kavanaugh of wrongdoing and fumed over what they described as character assassination of the judge by Democrats and the media.

 

"Our society is not a place where uncorroborated allegations of misconduct from nearly 40 years ago, allegations which are vigorously disputed can nullify someone's career or destroy their reputation. Is that what the Senate is going to be known for?" – Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)

 

"That's a bias that none of you should be proud of." – Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) to reporters

The weekend vote, if it happens, would bring a close to one of the most bitter and polarizing political fights in the modern era. A cloud will hang over Kavanaugh, the Supreme Court and the U.S. Senate for some time.

The political ramifications, with the midterm elections one month away, are unknown. Many analysts believe the House majority is a lost cause for Republicans but there is a growing sense on the right that the Kavanaugh saga has energized conservatives and will help Republicans preserve their majority in the Senate.

 

"Look at the polls over the last three or four days and it shows [Democrats'] rage-fueled resistance is starting to backfire at a level that nobody has ever seen before." – Trump at a rally last night in Minnesota

 

McClatchy: Republican enthusiasm surges amid Supreme Court battle.

NPR: Poll finds Democratic enthusiasm edge evaporates.

 

Perspectives

 

Katherine Miller: The Kavanaugh situation has opened up a portal in everyone's memory.

Sohrab Ahmari: Democratic smears against Kavanaugh have reunited the right.

Madeleine Aggeler: The new era of confrontation.

Victor Davis Hanson: The polarizing atmosphere of the university has spread to Congress.

Margaret Carlson: The male grievance backlash parade.

The National Review: Do the right thing, Jeff Flake.

Haley Sweetland Edwards: How Ford's testimony changed America.

John McCormack: How Flake's one-week delay helped clear Kavanaugh's name.

Former Justice John Paul Stevens: Kavanaugh does not belong on the court.

Bret Stephens: For once, I'm grateful for Trump.

 
LEADING THE DAY

CAMPAIGNS & POLITICS: Trump will campaign in Topeka this weekend for Republican Kris Kobach, who is running in a dead heat with Democrat Laura Kelly for Kansas governor.

 

The latest Emerson College survey finds Kobach at 37 percent support and Kelly at 36 percent, with independent Greg Orman at 9 percent and 15 percent of voters undecided.

 

The president's heavy campaign schedule continues next week with stops in Iowa and Pennsylvania.

 

There are a handful of endangered Republican House members in those states, including three open races in Pennsylvania for seats presently held by Republicans that The Cook Political Report has rated as either "likely Democratic" or "leans Democratic."

 

The Republicans who face uncertain reelection prospects, according to Cook:

 

Rep. Rod Blum (R-Iowa): Leans Democratic

Rep. David Young (R-Iowa): Tossup

Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Pa.): Likely Democratic

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.): Tossup

 

However, Cook finds the GOP's fortunes improving in some Senate races:

 

© Twitter

 

 

More from the campaign trail…Driven by the South's past, black women seek votes and a new future (The New York Times)...Former Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) reboots in Florida governor's race after rocky start (The New York Times)...Democrats lead in five critical California House races (The Hill).

 

Perspectives and Analysis

 

Emily Badger: Estranged in America: Both sides feel left out.

Clare Malone: Democrats really could lose that New Jersey Senate seat.

Maya Kosoff: Will anti-Trump millennials actually turn up to vote?

Salena Zito: Red ripples amid talk of a blue wave.

Noah Millman : Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is the best bet for Democrats in 2020.

 
IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

 WHITE HOUSE & ADMINISTRATION: Tensions between the U.S. and Russia and China are running hot.

 

> The Trump administration on Thursday indicted seven Russian intelligence officers, alleging that they participated in a global hacking campaign against the U.S. and its allies (The Hill).

 

The accused Russians, who work for the GRU, Russia's military intelligence unit, are outside of U.S. jurisdiction and unlikely to ever see the inside of an American courtroom.

 

Earlier this year, special counsel Robert Mueller indicted 12 GRU officers for their involvement in malicious cyber operations around the 2016 presidential election, including three who were indicted on Thursday.

 

Separately, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis accused Russia of deploying nuclear-capable missiles in violation of an arms treaty (The Associated Press).

 

"Make no mistake: The current situation, with Russia in blatant violation of this treaty, is untenable." – Mattis

 

> In a speech to the Hudson Institute, Vice President Pence accused China of a "malign" campaign to undermine Trump and of meddling in the midterm elections with the aim of electing Democrats.

 

"To put it bluntly, President Trump's leadership is working; China wants a different American president." – Pence

 

From Jordan Fabian and Morgan Chalfant (The Hill):

 

            "Pence's remarks come as U.S. officials, including Trump himself, have ramped up their rhetoric against what they say are Chinese efforts to undermine American businesses, provoke the U.S. military and develop a sophisticated election-meddling campaign similar to what Russia carried out in the 2016 election."

 

Bloomberg Businessweek: How China used a tiny chip to infiltrate U.S. companies.

CNN: U.S. Navy proposing major show of force to warn China.

 

> And fallout from The New York Times report on the president's finances, which alleged that Trump and his father Fred Trump earned their wealth through questionable business practices and tax strategies:

 

The Hill: Legal obstacles to pursuing tax charges against Trump family.

The Hill: Trump tax story prompts calls revise estate rules.

 

More from the White House … The administration is pushing to ease the roll-out of driverless cars and trucks (The Washington Post) … Treasury slaps new financial sanctions on groups with ties to North Korea, Hezbollah (The Hill) … Interior Department implements new science policy (The Hill) … Trump immigration measures struggle in courts (The Hill).

 
OPINION

> American statesmanship is not dead, by Glenn Nye, opinion contributor, The Hill. http://bit.ly/2BWO4cY

 

> If Democrats lose again, Obama's legacy will be gone forever, by Jonathan Alter, The Daily Beast. https://thebea.st/2zTnGiL

 
WHERE AND WHEN

The House is in recess and will reconvene on Nov. 13.

 

The Senate will vote to end debate on Kavanaugh's nomination at 10:30 a.m.

 

The president participates in a Defense Industrial Base Report presentation from the Oval Office and will sign the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018.

 
ELSEWHERE

> With sports gambling legal, some are betting on a new kind of fan experience (The Washington Post).

 

> Juan Romero, busboy who aided wounded Robert Kennedy, dies (The Associated Press).

 

© Twitter

 
THE CLOSER

And finally…

 

The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded this morning to Congolese doctor Denis Mukwege and Iraqi human rights activist Nadia Murad, a former prisoner of the Islamic State, for their work to eliminate sexual violence as a weapon of war.

 

The Associated Press: Nobel prize honors the fight against sexual violence.

 

© Twitter

 

And here are the winner's of The Morning Report's quiz on Nobel history: Patrick Alford, Lorraine Lindberg, Dara Umberger, Sandy Sycafoose and Arni Daroy.

 

They answered correctly that Polish scientist Marie Curie is the only woman to have won a Nobel twice. Curie won the prize for physics in 1903 for a study on spontaneous radiation and she won the award for chemistry in 1911 for her work on radioactivity.

 

A pope has never won the Nobel Peace Prize. Past presidential winners include Theodore Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Woodrow Wilson and Barack Obama, not John F. Kennedy.

 

Jean-Paul Sartre was the existentialist writer who turned down a Nobel prize in literature, saying he didn't want to be associated with any institution, no matter how noble.

 

And while Malala Yousafzai was the youngest person to ever win the Nobel Peace Prize — she was 17 years old in 2014 — the youngest person to ever win a Nobel prize for physics was Lawrence Bragg, who was 25 years old when he accepted the prize in 1915.

 

© Getty Images

 

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DAILY DOSE: Technology

ב"ה  

Technology

By Tzvi Freeman

Technology is not here simply to provide utility. It is also meant as a springboard to wonder, allowing us to conceive our reality in ways previously unimaginable.

Technology provides an ever-expanding bank of metaphor to crystallize the most abstract ideas into tangible forms.

Don't think that this is a mere side benefit of technology. On the contrary, for this purpose these ideas were embedded into the universe from the six days of creation, only to unfold in our times.

Likkutei Sichos, vol. 15, pp. 42–48.


By Tzvi Freeman


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2018年10月4日 星期四

Bitter partisan battle over Kavanaugh enters final chapter

 
 
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Bitter partisan battle over Kavanaugh enters final chapter
The Senate will take a pivotal vote Friday on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, as the battle over President Trump’s pick enters its final chapter.
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On The Money: Kudlow floats Trump, Xi meeting at G-20 | Apple, Amazon servers reportedly compromised by China | Musk mocks SEC on Twitter

 
 
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Happy Thursday and welcome back to On The Money. I'm Sylvan Lane, and here's your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line.

See something I missed? Let me know at slane@thehill.com or tweet me @SylvanLane. And if you like your newsletter, you can subscribe to it here: http://bit.ly/1NxxW2N.

Write us with tips, suggestions and news: slane@thehill.com, vneedham@thehill.com, njagoda@thehill.com and nelis@thehill.com. Follow us on Twitter: @SylvanLane, @VickofTheHill, @NJagoda and @NivElis.

 

THE BIG DEAL--Kudlow floats Trump, Xi meeting at G-20: The White House is mulling the organization of a meeting later this year between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping amid stalled talks over ending a trade war.

"Maybe, maybe, Trump and Xi will meet at G-20 in Buenos Aires," White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said at an event hosted by the Economic Club in Washington Thursday. "Maybe not," he added.

The G-20 meeting takes place Nov. 30 and Dec. 1 in Argentina.

The Hill's Niv Elis has more here.



Why it matters: Trade talks between the U.S. and China have fallen apart in the past few months after getting off to an already shaky start this spring. Trump has imposed tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods, and threatened more to come, while China has responded with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods.

Kudlow, the director of the White House's National Economic Council, put the blame squarely on China.

"China has played fast and loose with the rules," he said. "Don't blame Trump, blame the system he inherited, which was essentially broken."

 

More from Kudlow's interview: Kudlow also dismissed concerns about the rising federal deficit and insisted that economic growth would bring down the debt.

"I've never been much of a deficit hawk," Kudlow said. "Growth is going to solve a good deal of that deficit and debt burden on the economy."

Kudlow blamed the $21 trillion federal debt on discretionary spending, which as Niv notes here, only accounts for one-third of annual spending.

 

LEADING THE DAY:

Apple, Amazon, among companies compromised in Chinese intelligence hack: Retail giant Amazon and tech giant Apple were among nearly 30 U.S. companies, including a major bank, that were compromised by a Chinese intelligence hardware hacking scheme, according to a Bloomberg report.

The companies and organizations were compromised through a maneuver of installing extra components onto computer chips that the groups had purchased while they were still at the factory being manufactured. The Hill's Ali Breland explains it here.

 

What happened: 

  • The malicious chips were reportedly placed by the Chinese People's Liberation Army, which was able to infiltrate the manufacturing process of a hardware company called Super Micro.
  • At the size of a grain of rice, according to Bloomberg, the chips were designed to be inconspicuous and avoid detection.
  • Once in place, they could be used to access data on a computer and install malware.

Both Apple and Amazon have denied the report, saying in statements to Bloomberg that their systems were not compromised by hacks.

"We've found no evidence to support claims of malicious chips or hardware modifications," Amazon said in its statement to Bloomberg.

Apple also said they had not "found malicious chips."

 

Musk mocks SEC on Twitter as judge mulls fraud settlement: Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Thursday mocked the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Twitter as a federal judge mulls whether to approve his settlement with the regulator over fraud charges.

"Just want to [sic] that the Shortseller Enrichment Commission is doing incredible work. And the name change is so on point," Musk tweeted Thursday afternoon, riffing on the name of the financial markets watchdog.

Musk's tweeted his shot at the SEC hours after a federal judge in Southern District of New York asked the agency to justify a settlement reached with the CEO last weekend. Musk agreed to step down as chairman of Tesla and pay $20 million in fines to the SEC to settle fraud charges. I've got more about the CEO, who is Extremely Online, right here.

 

Behind the anger: Musk has long had an antagonistic relationship with investors and Wall Street at large, once berating analysts during a Tesla earnings call. He frequently blasts Tesla's short-sellers, investors who bet against Tesla's share price, and compares them to parasites.

So naturally, Tesla stock dropped 2 percent in the overnight market following the tweet after falling 4 percent during trading Thursday.

 

Refresher: Musk landed in trouble with the SEC when he tweeted in August that he had secured a deal to take Telsa private for $4.20 a share. In reality, Musk never finalized such an agreement and said the price he cited was a reference to marijuana.

The SEC filed charges against Musk in September, claiming he mislead and harmed investors with his tweet in blatant violation of securities law. The agency sought to oust Musk from Tesla and bar him from serving as an officer of any publicly traded company.

 

MARKET CHECK: CNBC: Dow falls the most in 2 months on fears of rising rates as 10-year yield hits highest level since 2011.

"Stocks fell sharply on Thursday as interest rates hit new multiyear highs, dampening investor sentiment.

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 200.91 points to 26,627.48 as Nike and Home Depot lagged. The 30-stock index dropped 356 points at its lows of the day and posted its worst decline since Aug. 10.

"The S&P 500 declined 0.8 percent to 2,901.61, notching its worst day since June 25, with communications and tech sectors both sliding more than 1.5 percent. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.8 percent -- its biggest daily drop since June 25 -- to 7,879.51."

 

GOOD TO KNOW

  • Sen. Bernie Sanders is taking aim at McDonald's after Amazon announced this week that it would raise its minimum wage to $15 per hour.
  • The Treasury Department on Thursday targeted 12 individuals and companies accused of violating U.S. sanctions on transactions with North Korea and Hezbollah.
  • Drivers for Lyft and Uber packed into a New York City public hearing this week to call for a proposal that would establish a minimum pay rate of $15 per hour for tens of thousands of drivers using the ride-hailing services.
  • After reaching a NAFTA deal, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has plenty of work left to do on the country's troubled economy.
  • The New York Times maps the impact of Chinese tariffs on U.S. good and how they correspond to regions that most ardently supported Trump in 2016.

 

ODDS AND ENDS

  • Op-Ed: Nathan Wilmers, an assistant professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, writes on the "the hidden culprit behind stagnant wages."
 
 
 
 
 
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