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2018年10月12日 星期五

Election Countdown: O'Rourke brings in massive $38M haul | Deal on judges lets senators return to the trail | Hurricane puts Florida candidates in the spotlight | Adelson spending big to save GOP in midterms

 
 
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This is Election Countdown, The Hill's newsletter from Lisa Hagen (@LA_Hagen) and Max Greenwood (@KMaxGreenwood) that brings you the biggest stories on the campaign trail. We'd love to hear from you, so feel free to reach out to Lisa at LHagen@thehill.com and Max at MGreenwood@thehill.com. with any questions, comments, criticisms or food recommendations (mostly the latter, please). Click here to sign up.

 

We're 25 days until the 2018 midterm elections and 753 days until the 2020 elections.

 

 

In a year of record Democratic fundraising, Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) stands out. His campaign raised $38.1 million in the third quarter, he said Friday, a staggering amount that compares to top-tier presidential campaigns.

Let's put O'Rourke's mammoth haul in context: $38.1 million in a quarter is $12.7 million per month, $3.17 million a week, and an average of $423,000 raised for every day of the third quarter. O'Rourke's campaign hauled in $17,638 every hour, or $293 per minute.

The O'Rourke campaign raised more in the last three months than Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio) did in the entirety of their 2016 races for re-election. O'Rourke raised more than Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) and former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) did in their epic showdown two years ago -- combined. He raised more in one quarter than former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) raised during his entire 2016 presidential campaign (not including Bush's super PAC).

All that for a candidate who has never led a public poll against his rival, Sen. Ted Cruz (R).

Siena College pegs Cruz's lead at eight points, in a survey taken this week for the New York Times. Quinnipiac has Cruz up nine. Emerson College, the poll that shows Cruz's edge the narrowest, has the Republican ahead by five points.

Democratic donors have poured money into both Senate and House candidates across the country in the last three months. Ahead of Monday's Federal Election Commission filing deadline, Democratic candidates running for Senate seats in Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada have all reported raising at least $6 million.

But there's one more impressive haul to consider. The candidate who pulled in more money than anyone except O'Rourke: Rafael Edward Cruz.

--Reid Wilson

 

Senate showdown

Vulnerable Senate Democrats facing reelection this year will get some valuable campaign time, The Washington Post reports. But it comes at a price: confirming 15 of President Trump's judicial nominees. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) had previously threatened to hold the Senate in session until Election Day unless they agreed to vote on the judges.

 

Natural disasters typically yield calls for bipartisanship and political ceasefires. But in Florida's closely watched Senate and gubernatorial races, Hurricane Michael has given way to politicking. Some political groups ignored long-standing precedent and continued airing attack ads against candidates as the storm bore down on Florida Wednesday. And candidates are also seizing on the hurricane to prove their leadership chops ahead of election day.

 

Survey says…

The race for Florida's 27th District is heating up, with Republican Maria Elvira Salazar leading Democratic Candidate Donna Shalala by two percentage points, according to the latest Mason Dixon-Telemundo 51 poll. A well-known figure in the community thanks to her time working for Spanish-language Telemundo, Salazar is a formidable Republican challenger in a district that Hillary Clinton won by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016.

 

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) trails Democrat challenger Tony Evers by 10 points in his reelection bid, according to the latest NBC/Marist poll. President Trump's net-negative approval rating in the state may prove to be Walker's downfall thanks to the president's early endorsement of his campaign back in August.

 

Republican Brian Kemp leads Democrat Stacey Abrams by less than one point in Georgia's gubernatorial race, according to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Channel 2 News poll. The poll provides a margin of error of 2.8 points, giving Abrams and Kemp a statistical tie with less than a month left before Election Day.

 

Paper chase

Casino mogul Sheldon Adelson recently added tens of millions of dollars to GOP super PACs Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) and Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), Politico reports. Adelson has already given $55 million to the two groups in the lead-up to midterms. With his latest contributions, he will be the largest GOP donor in the 2018 election cycle.

 

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) reported raising more than $2.4 million between July and August, bringing his total cash on hand to a little more than $5 million. So far, he's raised more than $20 million in the 2018 cycle, his campaign said. He's facing a challenge from Republican Corey Stewart and is expected to easily coast to a second term in the Senate in November.

 

What we're watching for

Senate Debate schedule:

--Friday night debate in Wisconsin

--Sunday night debates in Ohio and Michigan

Trump rally schedule:

--Friday rally in Lebanon, Ohio at 7 p.m. ET

--Saturday rally in Richmond, Ky. at 7 p.m. ET

 

Coming to a TV near you

VoteVets, a progressive veterans advocacy group, is dropping $4 million on a new ad accusing Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) of "defrauding the military's health care program" during his tenure as the CEO of health care conglomerate Columbia/HCA. The ad also goes after Scott for frequently wearing a Navy hat. "Governor, this hat represents what the Navy stands for: Honor, integrity," a man, identified as Navy veteran Alan Madison, says in the spot. "My question for you, sir? Where's yours?"

 

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is launching new ads in three competitive districts in New York, Minnesota and Nevada.

In New York's 19th District, the group is attacking Democrat Antonio Delgado, accusing him of supporting massive tax hikes and a "radical government takeover of health care." Delgado is locked in a tight race with incumbent Rep. John Faso (R-N.Y.).

 

The NRCC is airing another spot in Minnesota's 1st District going after Democrat Dan Feehan for supporting former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick's decision to kneel during the National Anthem. "Tell Dan Feehan, real patriots stand together," a narrator says in the ad. Feehan is a former captain in the Army who served two combat tours in Iraq.

 

And in Nevada's 4th District, the NRCC is accusing former Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) of pay-to-play politics. "Steven Horsford makes government work for himself," a narrator says in the spot. Horsford is vying to replace retiring Rep. Ruben Kihuen (D-Nev.) and faces a challenge from former Rep. Cresent Hardy (R-Nev.).

 

Wave watch

Republican groups are withdrawing funding from some underperforming and vulnerable incumbents, The New York Times reports. They're looking to concentrate their resources in fewer districts where they believe they can stave off Democratic advances. The goal, the newspaper reports, is to try to limit Democratic gains to 20 seats – three short of the 23 the party need to retake control of the House.

 

March for Our Lives, the gun safety group founded by survivors of the deadly mass shooting in Parkland, Fla., is launching a 12-day tour ahead of Election Day. The tour will take the group to 12 cities across seven states, and will focus on voter registration and engagement efforts, the Tampa Bay Times reports.

 

Race for the White House

The midterms may be the center of attention. But outside groups are already spending millions to boost Trump's reelection bid. McClatchy DC reports that at least six groups have already spent more than $9 million on television, mail, phone and online efforts to promote the president's 2020 campaign.

 

Former first lady Michelle Obama is a rock star among Democrats. Even after moving out of the White House, she remains incredibly popular and she's set to expand her profile even more with an upcoming book tour. But don't expect her to launch a bid for the White House, The Hill's Amie Parnes and Judy Kurtz report. "She has always said 'hell no,' and she means 'hell no,' " one former Obama White House aide said.

 

In case you missed it

In Georgia's hotly contested governor's race, the Abrams campaign is calling on Kemp to resign from his post as Georgia secretary of State. That comes after a report from The Associated Press that more than 53,000 voter registration applications -- 70 percent of them from black voters -- are on hold after failing to meet the state's "exact match" law. That law marks applications as "pending" if their personal information on voter registration forms doesn't match information on federal databases.

Abrams and Democrats argue that the policy suppresses minority votes. Her campaign called on Kemp's office to stop using the "exact match" law and resign from his position.

But Kemp and his campaign are pushing back, saying that Democrats are playing politics. They say that everyone marked as "pending" will be able to vote and can resolve those issues at polling locations or at least cast a provisional ballot.

"This is not complicated. Every person on the 'pending' list - if they are real and qualified - can vote at their polling precinct early or on Election Day," Ryan Mahoney, Kemp's spokesman, said in a statement to The Hill. "Stacey Abrams is either intentionally misleading Georgia voters or simply does not understand how voting works in our state. Clearly, she is unfit to be governor."

 
 
 
 
 
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News Alert: How America’s urban-rural divide is changing the Democratic Party

 
 
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How America’s urban-rural divide is changing the Democratic Party
ST. PAUL, Minn. — For decades, the shotgun marriage between the Minnesota Democratic Party and the Farmer-Labor Party engineered by Hubert Humphrey created a prairie populist machine that ran this state.

Republicans have not won Minnesota’s electoral votes since 1972. No Republican candidate running for a U.S. Senate seat or the governorship has won more than 50 percent of the vote since Arne Carlson in 1994.

But now, as Minnesota’s largest cities surge and rural communities lose both population and economic staying power, that coalition is fraying, fractured by tensions between urban and small-town residents worried about their futures.
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The Hill's 12:30 Report — Presented by Citi — O'Rourke raises $38M in third quarter | Turkey claims to have evidence journalist was killed | Senators want Trump to ramp up pressure on Saudis | Kavanaugh tensions linger in Senate | Dems struggle to mobilize Latino voters | Princess Eugenie's royal wedding | H Street Festival this weekend | How millennials are killing American cheese

The Hill 12:30 Report
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25 DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION

Why Beto must have a big grin on his face this morning:

'Yup, that's me!'

 

Via The Hill's Reid Wilson, Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) raised more than $38 million in the third quarter for his Senate campaign against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). How many donors: More than 800,000. http://bit.ly/2CF36oV

 

Some context to the $38 million: A presidential campaign that raised that much money in a quarter would be doing well. This is a Senate campaign.

 
THE GOOD NEWS FOR CRUZ:

Via The Dallas Morning News, new polling suggests that Cruz has a healthy lead over O'Rourke. For example: A new Quinnipiac poll shows Cruz leading by 9 points. http://bit.ly/2yzVBeB

 

How Democrats are struggling right now:

Via The Hill's Melanie Zanona, "Democrats have a major edge when it comes to support among female voters, but they have struggled to lock down another key voting bloc: Latinos." Why Dems are surprised: "many on the left have been hoping that President Trump's hard-line immigration policies and heated rhetoric will lead to a surge of energized Latinos at the polls in favor of Democrats on Election Day." What to expect: http://bit.ly/2OlXINJ

 
REPUBLICANS ARE HOPEFUL IN BLUE STATES:

Via The Hill's Reid Wilson, Republican strategists are holding out hope that the GOP can make gains in some of the bluest states in the country. Which states: Oregon, Minnesota and Connecticut. http://bit.ly/2QMD5Hg

 
TIDBIT -- REPUBLICANS' SECRET WEAPON:

Using Hillary Clinton and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) in TV ads to rally Republicans to the polls. 

 

Mannn, this quote is amazing: From Republican strategist Ana Navarro: "It's all about energizing the Republican base. If you are a Republican -- man, woman, child or house plant -- you are genetically predisposed to detest Nancy Pelosi, and Hillary is not far behind." https://politi.co/2NDZ6pC

 

Happy Friday! It suddenly feels like fall in D.C.  I'm Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what's coming up. Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com@CateMartel and on Facebook.

 

 
TALK OF THE MORNING

New details on the missing Saudi journalist -- Turkey says it has evidence he was killed:

Via The Washington Post, "The Turkish government has told U.S. officials that it has audio and video recordings that prove Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi was killed inside the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul this month, according to U.S. and Turkish officials." About the recordings: "The recordings show that a Saudi security team detained Khashoggi in the consulate after he walked in Oct. 2 to obtain an official document before his upcoming wedding, then killed him and dismembered his body, the officials said." https://wapo.st/2Cd7sCv

 
TIDBIT FROM CNN'S JAKE TAPPER:

"WaPo reported: 'Before Khashoggi's disappearance, U.S. intelligence intercepted communications of Saudi officials discussing a plan to capture him, according to a person familiar with the information.'

I asked [Office of the Director of National Intelligence]: Why wouldn't the US warn him? 

ODNI: No comment." http://bit.ly/2Eigxwz

 
REACTION ON CAPITOL HILL:

Top Republican senators are hoping the Trump administration will "act on the Senate's request for the White House to conduct a statutorily required investigation into whether Saudi sanctions are needed." Some lawmakers are going a step further: Lawmakers are "talking about a possible clampdown on the military-to-military relationship that would include nixing arms sales and withdrawing support for the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen's civil war." http://bit.ly/2ISHPIH

 
REACTION FROM MEDIA COMPANIES -- TOP EXECS PULL OUT OF A SAUDI EVENT:

"Media companies are pulling out of a Saudi investment conference because of growing outrage over the disappearance of a prominent Saudi journalist in Turkey." https://cnb.cx/2yx0Sn7

 
IF YOU HAVEN'T BEEN FOLLOWING THIS STORY:

The Wall Street Journal has a good primer video to catch you up. Watch: http://bit.ly/2CbZFF5

 
NEWS THIS MORNING

[Senate's] out for summer. [Senate's] out forever:

--> http://bit.ly/2PqggZv:

 

The Senate has left for the month, allowing vulnerable senators to hit the campaign trail before Election Day. Why now: Senate leaders struck a deal yesterday to vote on a package of 15 judges, allowing them to recess until after the midterms. Did we see this coming?: Not really. The Senate was scheduled to be in session until Oct. 26. http://bit.ly/2A7T39t

 
LATEST WITH HURRICANE MICHAEL

Go home, Michael:

Hurricane Michael has battered the southeast, with at least 11 people killed so far. https://wxch.nl/2OknEJz

 

The worst part -- those numbers are expected to rise: "Some of the hardest-hit communities have yet to report any fatalities, and although officials said they hoped they would find survivors, a resigned gloom was setting in throughout the disaster zone." https://nyti.ms/2yC5wA8

 

 

Watch: http://bit.ly/2EhES5O

 
IN LIGHTER NEWS

There was another royal wedding today:

Princess Eugenie and Jack Brooksbank were married at St. George's Chapel at Windsor Castle this morning. http://bit.ly/2EfPQsl

 

Princess Eugenie didn't wear a veil: Eugenie decided to show the scar on her back from surgery as a child. Instead of a veil, she wore a diamond and emerald tiara borrowed from the Queen. Photo -- it's stunning: http://bit.ly/2C9s3YB

 

Photos of her dress: http://bit.ly/2QO56hQ


Obviously, Prince George and Princess Charlotte stole the show: Photos of the two having a blast: https://on.today.com/2CektvY

 

Photos of some of the celebrity guests: https://cnn.it/2ISvOmu

 

Andrea Bocelli performed: Watch: http://bit.ly/2pOxDIr

 

Livestream of the wedding: http://bit.ly/2yA1Tec

 
IN OTHER NEWS

Wounds are still healing:

Via The Hill's Jordain Carney, "Republican and Democratic senators say they're ready to move on from the fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation, but lingering tensions from one of the bitterest fights in recent Senate history are proving difficult to soothe." http://bit.ly/2RHZ17I

 
SPOTTED

I knew I smelled musk:

Tesla founder Elon Musk was spotted at the White House yesterday for meetings but did not meet with President Trump. It's hard to compete with Kanye West and Kid Rock. http://bit.ly/2NDT6gP

 
NOTABLE TWEETS

Welcome to existence!:

 

Details: https://cnn.it/2PAMNfS

 
ON TAP

The House and Senate are out.

 

11:30 a.m. EDT: President Trump received an intelligence briefing.

 

11:55 a.m. EDT: Vice President Pence leaves Washington, D.C. for Springfield, Ill.

 

2:50 p.m. EDT: President Trump leaves the White House for a campaign event in Ohio.

 

2:55 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence campaigns for Congressional candidate Rodney Davis in Springfield, Ill.

 

5:15 p.m. EDT: President Trump holds a roundtable with supporters in Cincinnati.

 

6:35 p.m. EDT: Vice President Pence speaks at the 2018 Indiana Republican Party Fall Dinner at the JW Marriott Indianapolis.

 

10:30 p.m. EDT: President Trump gets back to the White House.

 

Noon -- 7 p.m. Saturday: The H Street Festival in Washington, D.C. Details: http://bit.ly/2NEAqxd

 

 
WHAT TO WATCH

6 p.m. EDT: Former Vice President Joe Biden campaigns for Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) in Hammond, Ind. Livestream: https://cs.pn/2Pwesye

 

7 p.m. EDT: President Trump holds a campaign rally in Lebanon, Ohio. 

 

Sunday: President Trump will appear on CBS's "60 Minutes." Keep in mind: The interview was reportedly taped Thursday. http://bit.ly/2ybe9lS

 
NOW FOR THE FUN STUFF...

Today is National Gumbo Day.

 

We like bougie cheese, apparently:

Via Bloomberg's Lydia Mulvany and Leslie Patton, American cheese sales are declining in the United States. Even restaurants are now opting for higher quality cheese. Who is getting blamed (or credited, you decide): Millennials. https://bloom.bg/2RKd8JN

 

For example: "Wendy's is offering asiago. A&W's Canada locations switched to real cheddar. McDonald's is selling the Big Mac's soft, orange square of American cheese with a version that doesn't contain artificial preservatives. Cracker Barrel ditched its old-fashioned grilled cheese. So did Panera Bread, replacing American with a four-cheese combo of fontina, cheddar, monteau and smoked gouda. The result: higher sales."

 

And to get your weekend off to the right start, here's a baby donkey prancing in the field: http://bit.ly/2NAtf9j

 
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