The Hill's Morning Report — Dems poised for big gains in House, governor’s mansions | Is Washington headed for divided government? | Trump calls midterms a referendum on himself | Election security part of the 2018 warfare | DOJ monitoring voter rights laws in 19 states | Trump talks post-election staff shake-up | The midterms by the numbers | Dems plot leadership moves

© Getty Images     Welcome to The Hill's Morning Report and it’s Election Day! Our daily email gets you up to speed on the most important developments in politics and policy, plus trends to watch, co-created by Jonathan Easley and Alexis Simendinger. (CLICK HERE to subscribe!) On Twitter, find us at @joneasley and @asimendinger.   📺 Hill.TV’s “Rising” Election Day special “Pollywood” begins at 4 p.m. ET with celebrity analysis from Chelsea Handler, Tom Arnold, Moby and many more. Special election 2018 coverage begins at 9 p.m. ET with Lanny Davis, Carl M. Cannon, Melissa Harris Perry, former Rep. Tom DeLay, Bre Payton and more.  http://thehill.com/hilltv.   Election Day is finally here, with a deeply polarized electorate poised to render judgment on President Trump’s first two years in office.   Majorities in the House and Senate hang in the balance. It appears Washington could be headed for divided government as we enter a presidential election cycle.   The midterm fundamentals have long pointed toward significant gains for Democrats in the House, and late-breaking data appears to add to the growing body of evidence that suggests the House will flip, potentially giving House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif) a second stint as Speaker.   The Hill: Republicans fear loss of House majority.   FiveThirtyEight: Democrats aren’t certain to take the House, but they’re clear favorites.   The latest:   > Retirees, long a GOP stalwart among voting demographics, donated more money to Democrats than Republicans this cycle (The Wall Street Journal).   > The Cook Political Report has moved nine more House races toward Democrats. Far more GOP-held seats are in play this cycle and Democrats need only to perform adequately in toss-up races to flip the 23 seats they need to reclaim a majority.   © Twitter     > Early voter turnout indicates that the young and irregular voters Democrats need to show up are indeed casting ballots. From The Hill’s Reid Wilson:              “Turnout has increased the most among younger voters, minorities and people who rarely or never vote. Among voters aged 18-29, turnout is up in 39 of 41 states for which data are available,” said John Della Volpe, who directs polling for Harvard University's Institute of Politics. “For voters aged 30-39, turnout is up in all 41 states where data are available. As a consequence, the 2018 electorate appears likely to be significantly younger and more diverse than the electorate that voted four years ago — both good signs for Democratic candidates.”   Early voting is popular at the White House. Trump, first lady Melania Trump, Vice President Pence and Karen Pence voted absentee in their home states a few weeks ago.   > The final forecast from Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics has Democrats netting 34 seats in the House, with a potential upside of 40 or more.   > Election forecasters are also warning about a potential GOP bloodbath in governor’s mansions around the country.   Republicans currently hold 33 governorships, compared with 16 for Democrats and one independent. That margin will likely be far closer after Tuesday, with a Democratic majority possible.   There are 36 gubernatorial races on Tuesday and Sabato has Democrats netting 10 governorships.   That number could tick higher depending on how a few close races break in traditionally red states, which is why Pence spent his final day on the campaign trail in South Dakota for the GOP’s gubernatorial candidate.   US News & World Report: Democrats eye a dozen governors races.   Perhaps the one thing keeping Tuesday from becoming an unmitigated disaster for Republicans is that the Senate map greatly favored the GOP coming in, with 10 Democratic senators up for reelection in states Trump won in 2016.   Barring a “blue wave” of unforeseen proportions, Republicans are expected to maintain their narrow 51-49 majority in the Senate and possibly add to it. It won’t necessarily be easy. Races in Texas and Tennessee are closer than they should be.   The Hill: Democrats have slim hopes of flipping the Senate. The Associated Press: Election Day to test Democratic resistance in Trump era.   It seems all but certain that Election Day surprises await. We warned yesterday about questions around the polls, which has injected a level of uncertainty into an already volatile and unpredictable landscape.               “We have long cautioned against assuming the House was a done deal for the Democrats, and we don’t think readers should be stunned if things go haywire for Democrats tomorrow night.” – Sabato   San Diego Union Tribune: Polls point to Democratic takeover of House, but there are some factors that could change that.   Trump, of course, remains at the center of it all.   On a wild, three-state swing through Ohio, Indiana and Missouri on Monday, the president cast the midterms as a referendum on himself.               “In a sense, I am on the ticket.” – Trump to rallygoers in Ohio.   The Memo: Midterm election will render verdict on Trump. The Hill: Trump’s closing argument frames midterms as a referendum on his White House.   Former President Obama agrees wholeheartedly.   © Twitter     Polling Roundup   Nevada Senate: Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) leads Sen. Dean Heller (R) by 4 points. Missouri Senate: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) leads Republican Josh Hawley by 3 points. Generic Ballot: Democrats lead by 6 points.   Perspectives and Analyses   The Hill: Pundits predict who will win on Tuesday. The Hill: 7 things to watch for on Election Day. Susan Page: Both sides warn U.S. democracy is at risk. Lynda Tran: Democrats closing argument is “we are better than this.” David Graham: How far have Democrats moved to the left? Charles F. McElwee: How Pennsylvania could tip the balance in the House. Salena Zito: Latino voters in Florida could help Republicans win key races. Brent Budowsky: Young voters could lift Democrats to victory. Charlie Kirk: Why voters must elect Republicans.   © Twitter     LEADING THE DAY ELECTION SECURITY: The integrity of U.S. elections has been of concern for decades, but much more of a front-and-center worry since Russia carried out a plan to interfere with the presidential contest two years ago.   The Obama and Trump administrations agreed on one assertion about what happened in 2016: Election meddling did not change any ballots.   But other forms of alleged interference remained in the klieg lights on Monday. In general, Democrats worry about efforts to hinder eligible voters from participating today, while Republicans fear instances of voter fraud and illegal voting.   The Associated Press: Voting officials under scrutiny amid heavy turnout. Reuters: Facebook boots 115 accounts on eve of U.S. election after tip.   For instance, in Georgia, Secretary of State Brian Kemp, who is running for governor against Democrat Stacey Abrams, asserted without evidence on Monday that Democrats tried to hack the state’s voter registration files. Abrams dismissed her opponent’s allegation as part of a “pattern of voter suppression” in Georgia (The Washington Post).   Meanwhile, Trump returned to a favorite (and debunked) theme from 2017 — that many, many people intended to vote “illegally.” He warned of “maximum criminal penalties” for voter fraud (The Hill).              “There are a lot of people — a lot of people — my opinion, and based on proof — that try and get in illegally and actually vote illegally,”  the president told reporters.   Norm Eisen, White House ethics adviser under Obama and a frequent Trump critic, reacted to one of Trump’s tweets:   © Twitter     The Washington Post: Without evidence, Trump and Sessions warn of voter fraud, signifying possible post-election fight. The Washington Post editorial board: All the ugliness of the Trump campaign is on display in Georgia.   The Department of Homeland Security referred the Georgia hacking allegations to the state of Georgia to investigate.   Legal skirmishes about voting rights may impact key elections in states with tight races. Voting laws in North Dakota and Arizona now being challenged in court could keep thousands of voters from casting a ballot (The Hill).   This week’s contests are the first national elections to be held since Russia successfully interfered in U.S. elections. Officials have spent two years working to make sure 2018 isn’t a repeat, but they acknowledge that the elections could be subject to cyber or other threats (The Hill).   The Department of Justice, however, looked inward to the states, not to risks of international interference. It announced on Monday that it would monitor “compliance with federal voting rights law” by putting its personnel in 19 states to monitor events.   Around the country, nonpartisan groups and volunteer attorneys are mobilized today to respond to any reports that people are unable to vote if they believe they are eligible to participate. One such nonpartisan group is Election Protection.   © Twitter     © Getty Images     *** WHITE HOUSE & ADMINISTRATION: There have been rumors of a staff exodus from the White House after the election and Trump signaled on Monday that a shake-up is likely.               “Administrations make changes, usually after midterms. And probably, we'll be right in that category, too. I think it's very customary.” — Trump   The president has made no secret about his frustration with Attorney General Jeff Sessions, making him a prime candidate to be replaced. The White House still needs to tap a successor for U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, who is leaving soon. And Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke’s seat gets hotter with each new controversy or scandal. Trump gave Zinke a vote of confidence on Monday.               “I'm going to look at any reports. I'll take a look. Certainly, I would not be happy with that at all. But I will take a look. But he's done a very good job as secretary.” — Trump on Zinke   There have also been reports that Defense Secretary James Mattis is not long for the job, but the president shot down that speculation on Monday.               “Why would I do that? … Is that the new rumor? … I hadn’t heard that one.” — Trump on Mattis   During a CBS “60 Minutes” interview last month, Trump said he was unsure whether Mattis would stay on.              “It could be that he is [leaving]. I think he's sort of a Democrat, if you want to know the truth. But General Mattis is a good guy. We get along very well. He may leave. I mean, at some point, everybody leaves. Everybody. People leave. That's Washington." — Trump in October   > One familiar name from the past at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, former White House counsel A.B. Culvahouse Jr., got the nod from Trump on Monday to fill a job long vacant in his administration — to become U.S. ambassador to Australia. Culvahouse, 70, served as former President Reagan’s top lawyer, and handled vetting when candidate Trump selected a 2016 running mate (The Associated Press).   Reuters: Pentagon balked at U.S. border troops building immigration detention center. The Hill: Mattis to meet this week with Chinese counterpart.   More from the Trump administration … Frost thaws in U.S.-China ties ahead of G20 meeting (Reuters) … Pence tells Hill.TV that a bipartisan infrastructure package is possible after the elections (The Hill) … National security adviser John Bolton says additional sanctions on Iran could be in the works (Reuters) … IRS sparks new fight over school donations (The Hill).   IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES ➔ ELECTIONS 2018: BY THE NUMBERS …     56 - Interviews Trump granted to news media outlets during the 64 days between Labor Day and this morning, according to presidency scholar and Towson University professor emeritus Martha Joynt Kumar, who told The Hill that’s a ton of interviews compared with previous presidents during similar midterm periods. Thirty percent of the 186 media interviews Trump has given as president took place in those weeks, Kumar told us. Plus, Trump held 30 reelection rallies, and 27 of his interviews were with outlets considered local to his rally sites. In other words, the president had a midterm media strategy.   $100 million - Campaign cash raised by Trump thus far for his 2020 reelection, an astonishing sum.   $5.2 billion - Spent by candidates, political parties and outside groups on House and Senate contests this cycle, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. 2018 tops spending records for any congressional midterm cycle (Reuters).   69 percent - Campaign ads in the post-Labor Day period that featured attacks and negative information (Wesleyan Media Project). “This election season feels exceptionally negative to many viewers because the sheer number of negative ads on the air is up by 61 percent over the 2014 midterms.”   3,638 - Female candidates on ballots today for House, Senate, governorships and state legislative seats — a record (NPR).   81 - House seats lost by a president's party set a midterm bloodbath record in 1938 while Franklin Roosevelt was president (American Presidency Project). Analysts’ expectations today: 25-35 House GOP seats may flip.   31 million - Early ballots cast as of Monday morning in participating states, a record-breaking number (CNN).   4 - States in which voters decide today whether to expand Medicaid.   3 - States deciding today whether to restrict access to abortion.   3 - Deceased candidates whose names will appear on ballots today are Florida Democrat April Freeman, 54, running for the House, who died in September, too late for the party to put chosen Democratic successor Allen Ellison on the ballot; Nevada brothel owner Dennis Hof, a 72-year-old Republican candidate for the state assembly, who died last month after a night of energetic partying (The New Yorker); and Wyoming Republican defense attorney Tony Lopez, 65, who campaigned to become Albany County Attorney before his death in October.   2 - House members seeking reelection while under federal indictment are Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter in California (CBS News) and New York Republican Rep. Chris Collins (The Hill).   OPINION Trump’s Iran policies are proving effective, by Alex Titus, RealClearPolitics. http://bit.ly/2PFWSLx   Trump’s sanctions against Iran emboldens U.S. enemies and weakens allies, by Simon Jenkins, The Guardian. http://bit.ly/2QkAX9N   WHERE AND WHEN The House and Senate will return to Washington to resume work on Tuesday, Nov. 13.   The president wrapped up his campaign swing before 2 a.m. today. He is expected to make phone calls, monitor races across the country and meet with his political team for election updates. In the evening, the president and first lady will watch election returns in the White House residence with invited family and friends.   Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meets with Foreign Minister Nikos Christodoulides of Cyprus at the State Department at 4:30 p.m.   ELSEWHERE > Net neutrality: A 2016 court ruling preserving Obama-era net neutrality regulations aimed at ensuring a free and open internet will stand for now, despite the Trump administration’s efforts to repeal the rules. The Supreme Court declined to take up the case, leaving in place the earlier ruling issued by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit (Reuters). … The fight over how internet access will be regulated is still far from over (The Hill).   > Retirement: Fidelity says 187,000 of its clients have $1 million or more in their retirement accounts, a record (PlanAdviser.com).   > Amazon headquarters: The company is said to be nearing deals to locate its newest headquarters in two cities beyond Seattle - Long Island City, N.Y., and Arlington, Va., -  according to The New York Times, and the surprise announcement could come soon (The Hill).   THE CLOSER And finally … Who knew the power and punch of “I Voted” stickers? We learned this week that those innocuous, petite lapel stickers dispensed at polling stations have sparked design contests, inspired social media show-offs, triggered humorous columns, are worth discounted drinks and freebies, and annoy some citizens who think they’re a complete waste of public money.   Before you receive yours today, catch the wave:   Stickers as art: Culpeper County, Va., wanted to involve more students in the election process this year. So it held a competition, funded by the PATH Foundation, that asked fourth-grade students to redesign the iconic “I Voted” sticker. And high school seniors were asked to create a “Future Voter” sticker, given to children who accompany grown-ups to polling places today. The winning young artists added color and creativity (WTOP).   Sticker yucks: “I voted because my gun can’t!” (The New York Times, by comedy writer Rebecca Caplan).   Stickers for swag: Freebies! It’s illegal! Federal law says you can’t exchange something of value for a vote, so some businesses, including Uber and Lyft, are getting around that legal wrinkle today (USA Today). But Austin, Texas, is one city that apparently just ignores these pesky technicalities (KVUE.com)   Sticker peer pressure: Behavioral scientists know the power of those little oval pats on the back. They’ve studied public enthusiasm for “I Voted” stickers, and dissected what psychological sway they hold (TheCut.com). Hint: Experts say that in a herd, “we’re afraid of being judged.”   © Twitter     The Morning Report is created by journalists Jonathan Easley jeasley@thehill.com & Alexis Simendinger asimendinger@thehill.com. Suggestions? Tips? We want to hear from you! Share The Hill’s reporting and newsletters, and encourage others to SUBSCRIBE!   To view past editions of The Hill's Morning Report CLICK HERE To receive The Hill's Morning Report in your inbox SIGN UP HERE Morning Report Sign Up FORWARD Morning Report Privacy Policy  |  Manage Subscriptions  |  Unsubscribe Email to a friend  |  Sign Up for Other Newsletters The Hill 1625 K Street, NW 9th Floor, Washington DC 20006 ©2018 Capitol Hill Publishing Corp., a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc.

DAILY DOSE: Wisdom to Heal

No wisdom is deeper than the wisdom to fix your world. In every detail of your world you will find infinite complexity. That is divine. But

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Daily Dose

Wisdom to Heal By Tzvi Freeman In every detail of your world you will find infinite complexity. That is divine. But it is not yet the true divine wisdom. The true wisdom lies in the power you are given to heal your world. By Tzvi Freeman From the wisdom of the Lubavitcher Rebbe, of righteous memory; words and condensation by Rabbi Tzvi Freeman. Subscribe and get your dose daily. To order Rabbi Freeman's latest book, Wisdom to Heal the Earth, click here. Print Page   ·   Read Online   ·   Discuss   ·   Share on Facebook This email was sent to: tweatsho.email004@blogger.com Change email address · Manage Subscriptions · Unsubscribe © Copyright Chabad.org · Contact Us · Ask the Rabbi · Privacy Policy · Donate

Hillicon Valley: Supreme Court declines to hear net neutrality challenge | How the midterms will affect the cyber agenda | Facebook rejects controversial Trump ad | Gab back online

View in Browser     Welcome to Hillicon Valley, The Hill's newsletter detailing all you need to know about the tech and cyber news from Capitol Hill to Silicon Valley. Welcome! Follow the cyber team, Olivia Beavers (@olivia_beavers) and Jacqueline Thomsen (@jacq_thomsen), and the tech team, Harper Neidig (@hneidig) and Ali Breland (@alibreland). And CLICK HERE to subscribe to our newsletter.   SCOTUS ENDS COURT BATTLE OVER OBAMA'S NET NEUTRALITY RULES: The Supreme Court on Monday put an end to a legal battle over the Obama administration's net neutrality rules, refusing to hear an appeal of a lower court ruling that upheld the 2015 regulations. The court declined to hear the appeal from the trade group USTelecom, which represents internet service providers, and Century Link Inc. without explanation. The internet service providers, along with the Trump administration, had asked the justices to toss out the ruling from the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. They argued the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) lacked the congressional authority to impose public-utility, common-carrier obligations on broadband internet access service. The rules prohibited ISPs from blocking or throttling web content or from creating paid fast lanes. While the Supreme Court's order is a win for net neutrality supporters, the fight over how internet access will be regulated is still far from over. The FCC voted 3-2 along party lines last December to repeal the rules, a decision that is facing a separate challenge from net neutrality supporters before the D.C. Circuit. The repeal went into effect in June, and Monday's order will have no immediate bearing on the current state of the rules. But net neutrality supporters celebrated the win on Monday, noting that it leaves in place a high court ruling that the FCC has the authority to regulate broadband like a public utility. Read more here.   WHAT THE CYBER AGENDA MIGHT LOOK LIKE AFTER TUESDAY: The midterm elections will be the first major test of election security since 2016, and also set the stage for the next Congress's cyber priorities. Cybersecurity is largely a bipartisan issue, but if Democrats take control of the House as expected, election security will likely move to the forefront of their agenda. There will also be even greater pressure on President Trump from liberal critics to counter foreign adversaries and ensure that the administration is taking steps to protect the 2020 vote. Democrats will be expected to push ahead on a number of other cyber priorities as well, including eliminating threats to the supply chain and resolving the contentious debate on the encryption of devices. To read more on how election security, supply chain threats and the encryption debate may unfold after the votes are tallied, click here.   FACEBOOK WON'T LET GOP PROMOTE TRUMP AD: Facebook on Monday said it would not run President Trump's controversial immigration ad, which critics have labeled racist, on its website. "This ad violates Facebook's advertising policy against sensational content so we are rejecting it," a Facebook spokesperson told The Hill in a statement. "While the video is allowed to be posted on Facebook, it cannot receive paid distribution." While Facebook won't let the video run as a paid ad, it will be allowed on the social media giant's platform under the company's community standards. The spokesman confirmed that Facebook initially approved the ad. According to a review of Facebook political ad data, the Trump campaign spent between $28,000 and $100,000 to run the ad, which was displayed on the platform between 2.8 million to 5 million times. The ad focuses on an undocumented immigrant who was deported several times before coming back into the U.S. and killing two police officers. The man, Luis Bracamontes, was arrested and released in 1998 by Republican Maricopa County, Ariz., Sheriff Joe Arpaio and then deported twice, once during a GOP president's administration and once during a Democrat's, despite the video's claim that Democrats allowed Bracamontes to stay in the U.S.  Read more here.   YIKES! Hackers have attempted to breach U.S. election systems more than 160 times since August, according to a federal election threats report viewed by The Boston Globe. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) reports show that foreign hackers have made dozens of new pushes to try to access U.S. election systems, like voter registration databases, in the weeks ahead of Tuesday's elections, the Globe reported on Monday. Officials have publicly said that they have been able to prevent cyberattacks on election systems. A DHS cybersecurity official told the Globe that the hacking attempts are similar to those used by Russia ahead of the 2016 election, but that they have not yet attributed the attacks to any one foreign entity. "We're seeing the same thing; the only difference is now we aren't saying Russia," the official told the newspaper. The DHS report states that the hackers have had "limited success." For example, a senior official leading a state's election systems saw their personal social media account hacked on Oct. 23. It was then reregistered with a Russian email account, according to the Globe. DHS spokesman Scott McConnell said in a statement to The Hill that state and local election officials are sharing more information about the kind of cyberattacks they are experiencing. "This does not mean that our partners are seeing an increase in cyber threats to their networks," he said. "DHS is committed to sharing timely and actionable information, like what is outlined in the intelligence report, with our elections partners." McConnell said the strategies being used by cyber actors are "common and not unique to election systems. Read more here.   GAB BACK ONLINE: Gab, which was booted by its domain host after a user of the platform was accused of killing 11 in a Pittsburgh synagogue, came back online this week. The platform, which bills itself as a free speech alternative to Twitter, has been scrutinized for attracting far-right, white supremacist and neo-Nazi users who have flocked to its platform after being banned from mainstream sites like Twitter and Facebook. The scrutiny hit a climax in the aftermath of last month's tragedy in Pittsburgh when the company PayPal said that it would no longer provide service to the site and Gab's web host, GoDaddy, also decided to drop it, effectively taking the platform offline.  Read more here.   YOU GET HQ2... AND YOU GET HQ2: Amazon is planning to split its second headquarters between two cities, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday. A person familiar with the matter told the Journal that the decision was driven by the need to recruit enough tech talent. The source also said it will spread the impact of the second headquarters, known popularly as "HQ2" across two communities, easing potential housing and transit problems caused by a sudden influx of tens of thousands of workers. The person said 25,000 employees will go to each city the company selects, and an announcement of the two locations could come as soon as this week. Read more here.   QUICK CLICKS FROM OVER THE WEEKEND: Senate Intel Vice Chairman Mark Warner (D-Va.) says, "People should vote with confidence" knowing that the elections will be secure. Read more here. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) on Friday activated his state National Guard's cybersecurity teams to be on standby for Tuesday's midterms, a precautionary move. Read more here. Three key tech issues at stake in tomorrow's elections. Read more here. More than 20,000 Google employees participated in last week's walkouts. Read more here.   ON TAP: A little something called the MIDTERM ELECTIONS: A reminder: Lyft and Uber are offering discounted rides to polling stations on Tuesday so plan accordingly. And VOTE!   AN OP-ED TO CHEW ON: Congress should pass legislation to prevent stacked taxation of digital purchases.   A LIGHTER CLICK: What we have to look forward to.   NOTABLE LINKS FROM AROUND THE WEB: A cryptocurrency millionaire wants to build a utopia in Nevada. (The New York Times) Here's the proof that net neutrality is going to be a factor in the midterms. (Fight for the Future) Intel's new interactive privacy principles. (Intel) Ivanka Trump's company applied for -- and was granted -- a trademark for voting machines in China. (CREW) How law enforcement missed the threat of white nationalism (The New York Times)         Did a friend forward you this email? Sign up for Technology Newsletters     Forward Technology Newsletters       Privacy Policy  |  Manage Subscriptions  |  Unsubscribe  |  Email to a friend  |  Sign Up for Other Newsletters   The Hill 1625 K Street, NW 9th Floor, Washington DC 20006 ©2018 Capitol Hill Publishing Corp., a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc.

On The Money: Robust economy drowned out by Trump's midterm message | Trump downplays talk of Dems demanding tax returns | Iran sanctions take effect | IRS sparks fight over school donations

View in your browser     Happy Monday and welcome back to On The Money. I'm Sylvan Lane, and here's your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line. See something I missed? Let me know at slane@thehill.com or tweet me @SylvanLane. And if you like your newsletter, you can subscribe to it here: http://bit.ly/1NxxW2N. Write us with tips, suggestions and news: slane@thehill.com, vneedham@thehill.com, njagoda@thehill.com and nelis@thehill.com. Follow us on Twitter: @SylvanLane, @VickofTheHill, @NJagoda and @NivElis.   THE BIG DEAL--Robust economy drowned out by Trump's midterm message: The latest employment report from the Labor Department was as impressive as any president could hope for just days before voters head to the polls. But adding a quarter-million jobs to the economy in October and keeping the unemployment rate at a 48-year low of 3.7 percent is unlikely to move the needle much on Election Day. Pollsters say that while the economy is an important predictor of election outcomes, it's far from the only one. The Clinton-era adage that elections are about "the economy, stupid," is too narrow in this day and age, they say. Other data points, such as a president's approval rating and whether people think the country is on the right track, now play a similarly influential role. And those indicators aren't pointing in the same direction for President Trump. The Hill's Niv Elis and I explain why the economy isn't keeping Republicans safe in the midterm elections.   The breakdown: While many Republican candidates want to keep their focus on the robust economy, Trump has focused much of his rhetoric on immigration, which he believes is a stronger motivator when it comes to voter turnout. Most recently, Trump has raised alarms over a migrant caravan largely comprised of refugees headed toward the U.S. border, calling them invaders and warning of criminal elements in the group. When Trump does mention the economy, it's usually to warn that it would tank if Democrats take control of either chamber of Congress on Nov. 6. That emphasis on immigration is at odds with efforts to protect vulnerable House Republicans in moderate suburbs where many voters are averse to Trump's culture wars. GOP lawmakers are instead betting the House on the strong economy and eagerly touting the economic figures.   ON TAP TOMORROW Election Day is finally here. Check in at TheHill.com during the day and as polls close for the latest results.   LEADING THE DAY Trump on prospect of Dems demanding his tax returns: 'They can do whatever they want':  President Trump on Monday downplayed the possibility that Democrats could demand his tax returns if they retake control of the House in Tuesday's elections. "I don't care. They can do whatever they want and I can do whatever I want," Trump said when asked if he was concerned Democrats may go after his tax returns if they win the majority. Trump spoke to reporters upon arriving in Fort Wayne, Ind., for one of three campaign rallies he held on Monday. He suggested that a Democratic majority would force the White House to "have to work a little bit differently." House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi vowed that Democrats would seek Trump's tax returns if they win control of the House in tomorrow's elections. That task would fall to the would-be chairman House Ways and Means Committee, Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), who is one of two members of Congress empowered to subpoena Trump's taxes. The other is the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, which is likely to remain under Republican control.   Rouhani says Iran faces 'war situation' as US sanctions take effect: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Monday said Iran is facing a "war situation" as the final round of U.S. sanctions against Tehran takes effect.  Rouhani, during remarks made on state television, compared President Trump to Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, saying there is "no difference" between the U.S. president and the man who led a war against Iran in the 1980s. "We are in the war situation," Rouhani said, according to The Associated Press. "We are in the economic war situation. We are confronting a bullying enemy. We have to stand to win."  The Trump administration on Monday reimposed the last set of sanctions lifted under the Iran nuclear deal. In addition to hitting Iran's energy sector, Monday's sanctions will target Iran's shipping, shipbuilding and financial sectors. The sanctions could be particularly harmful to Iran's vital oil industry, which Trump said he'd like to derail entirely. But the administration is granting waivers to eight nations to import Iranian oil in order to prevent severe price hikes. "I could get the Iran oil down to zero immediately, but it would cause a shock to the market. I don't want to lift oil prices," Trump told reporters Monday. Trump touted the sanctions as the toughest ever imposed by the U.S., and National Security Advisor John Bolton said Monday that more could be on the way. "We're gonna have sanctions that even go beyond this," said Bolton, a notorious Iran hawk. "We're not simply going to be content with the level of sanctions that existed under Obama in 2015."  Further reading: CNN: "Tough talk, despair divide Tehran's streets as sanctions strike" Bloomberg: "Iranians Dread the Pain of New Sanctions"   Xi promises lower tariffs, increased US imports: Chinese president Xi Jinping vowed to lower tariffs, broaden market access and increase imports on Monday. Xi made the comments at a trade expo designed to demonstrate goodwill in the midst of the U.S.-China trade war, Reuters reports. Echoing previous pledges, Xi said China would increase foreign access to its education, telecommunications and cultural sectors, protect foreign companies' interests and punish violations of intellectual property rights. All three are major sticking points for the Trump administration in its efforts to strike fairer trade terms with China.   IRS sparks new fight over school donations: Education advocates clashed at an IRS hearing on Monday as the agency considers proposed regulations that could have major implications for private education scholarships. The agency proposal is pitting advocates for private schools against supporters of public schools. At issue are proposed rules designed to prevent blue states from circumventing the cap on state and local deductions in President Trump's tax law. At Monday's hearing, school-choice advocates and religious organizations argued the IRS should limit the scope of its proposed rules. They worry the guidance as drafted would lead to fewer donations to organizations that provide scholarships or vouchers for students to attend private schools. The Hill's Naomi Jagoda takes us there.    GOOD TO KNOW U.S. soybean exports to China are down by 94 percent this year, according to the New York Times. Retirees have donated more to Democrats than Republicans so far in the 2018 midterm cycle for the first time since at least 1990, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Amazon is planning to split its second headquarters between two cities, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday. Former Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan will become the chairman of Citibank next year, the bank announced Monday. SoftBank's CEO Masayoshi Son on Monday said that his company will not cut ties to Saudi Arabia even as other technology firms rethink their relationships with the country in the fallout of the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.   ODDS AND ENDS "Boycott Amazon and Souq.com" were trending in Saudi Arabia on Monday amid Saudi criticism of the Washington Post's coverage of the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, who wrote for the newspaper owned by Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos.           Did a friend forward you this email? Sign up for Finance Newsletters     Forward Finance Newsletters       Privacy Policy  |  Manage Subscriptions  |  Unsubscribe  |  Email to a friend  |  Sign Up for Other Newsletters   The Hill 1625 K Street, NW 9th Floor, Washington DC 20006 ©2018 Capitol Hill Publishing Corp., a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc.