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2018年11月6日 星期二

The Hill's 12:30 Report — Presented by the Counter Extremism Project — Election Day (!) | Sights and sounds at the polls | The Hill's pundit predictions | Hour-by-hour guide to election night | What to watch for | Midterms to offer verdict on Trump | Dems optimistic about House, GOP about Senate | Major test for election security | East Coast storms may affect turnout | 'Dónde votar' most-searched on Google | Where to go for watch parties | National Nachos Day

The Hill 12:30 Report
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SIGHTS AND SOUNDS AT THE POLLS

Wait, is there something big happening today?:

© @wexler | Twitter

 

Voters are heading to the polls today to decide which party will control the House and the Senate, as well as other key state and local races and ballot measures.

 

Lol -- tidbit from the H Street NE neighborhood of D.C.: The Washington Post's Joe Heim tweeted, "My wife reporting from the local community center on the huge number of millennials waiting to vote: 'It looks like a line for avocado toast.' " http://bit.ly/2QlLNfJ

 

Best tweet I've seen all day: HuffPost's Ashley Feinberg tweeted a "pic of me getting ready for the big day." Photo -- amazing: http://bit.ly/2AQ2fQ7

 

Oh, fancy: Here's a voter showing up to the polls in Burke, Va., in a stretch limousine. Photo: http://bit.ly/2yTLG4m

 

^^Reaction from The Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman: "Current VA turnout projection: Upscale" http://bit.ly/2PbwqtU

 

The line in Atlanta is insane: "Hundreds of voters stand in line for hours this morning at this SW Atlanta polling place. Only three voting machines!" Video: http://bit.ly/2PbxFJw

 

Did someone say free pizza?: A nonprofit is sending pizza to voters who are stuck in long voting lines. How it works: http://bit.ly/2JGFaCa

 

Photo of voters waiting 90+ minutes to vote in Charleston, S.C.: http://bit.ly/2D469pY

 

Um, does anyone have the key to get the voting machines?: Via WXYZ Detroit, voters were turned away at a Detroit precinct after a miscommunication about the voting machines. "It turned out they were locked in a closet on the other side of the school, a closet that election workers did not have access to." http://bit.ly/2zxWwg4

 

Photo of former FBI Director James Comey voting: http://bit.ly/2PHD9uT

 

Photo of former Vice President Joe Biden voting: http://bit.ly/2Qmb8pZ

 

It's Tuesday -- HAPPY ELECTION DAY! We are less than 6 hours away from the first polls closing. 

 

I'm Cate Martel with a breakdown of this election morning and what's coming up. Send your comments and experiences at the polls today to cmartel@thehill.com -- and follow along on Twitter @CateMartel and Facebook.

 

Did someone forward this to you? Want your own copy? Sign up here to receive The Hill's 12:30 Report in your inbox daily: http://bit.ly/2kjMNnn

 

 
ELECTION DAY TIDBITS

The top Google search this morning: "Dónde votar," or "where to vote" in Spanish. According to Google: "The search term had spiked 3,350 percent to reach the top slot." http://bit.ly/2DmYV1i

 

Vice only allows people who say they've voted to enter their site: See for yourself: http://bit.ly/2qv7Cyj

 

Starting around 7:30 or 8 p.m. EST -- the dreaded New York Times needle: Like they did in 2016, The Upshot will publish a real-time election needle explaining the chances each party has of taking each chamber throughout the night. Brief on how that will work: https://nyti.ms/2D73rQM

 

^Why I called it the 'dreaded' needle: The forecaster became infamous in 2016 after it initially predicted that Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton would easily win. http://bit.ly/2Qo8rEm The Times then made changes to the needle. http://bit.ly/2qyLhjn

 

Bookmark this for tonight -- a helpful hour-by-hour viewer's guide: Via The Hill's Reid Wilson: http://bit.ly/2F8OBMl

 

The Google Doodle today: http://bit.ly/2SNd8sW

 

Outside the White House last night: "'Kremlin Annex' protesters holding their daily demonstration in front of the White House right now. They've been here 113 nights in a row." Photo of the light-up sign: http://bit.ly/2AQbLmx

 

How pundits think each race will go: http://bit.ly/2Pbq2To

 
VOTING DETAILS:

Info on how to vote and polling times in every state: https://cbsn.ws/2qyOqPX

 

The weather around the country is important: Rain, wind and thunderstorms could affect voter turnout across the East Coast today. And snow is expected in the northern Plains. The rest of the country looks pretty clear. Map of the weather on Election Day: http://bit.ly/2Osv6NO

 

^^Which party is helped by bad weather: "Multiple studies have shown that bad weather on Election Day can decrease turnout, which in turn tends to help Republicans, because the groups most likely to be deterred from voting are those that tend to vote Democratic." Full reasoning: https://nyti.ms/2PJNAhJ 

 

How to get a free or discounted ride to the polls: https://ti.me/2QlZTh9

 

If you're in D.C.: Here's where to get discounted drinks and food -- and watch the election results in D.C. The list from The Washington Post's Going Out Guide: https://wapo.st/2yV76OF

 

List of all the competitive races: https://nyti.ms/2qvsnd5

 

7 things to watch today: http://bit.ly/2SP8OJG

 

Interesting read -- how AP counts the votes: The Associated Press posted a Q&A of how votes are actually counted and races are called throughout the country: http://bit.ly/2ANGD6P

 

Why you shouldn’t believe the polls and just vote: http://bit.ly/2RHcSdP

 
WHERE THINGS STAND ON ELECTION DAY

Democrats are optimistic about the House:

Via The Hill's Melanie Zanona and Juliegrace Brufke, Republican leaders are bracing for the chance of losing the GOP majority in the House today as even more seats look vulnerable. The little bit of optimism for Republicans: "The party believes it has a chance to retain its majority because many of the districts it is defending were drawn up to protect Republicans from a blue wave." http://bit.ly/2PcBWwv

 

How many seats Democrats need to gain to win the House majority: 23

 

Republicans are optimistic about the Senate:

Via The Hill's Alexander Bolton, the GOP is hopeful the party can retain control of the Senate on Election Day. And while Democrats have a very slim chance of winning the upper chamber, party leaders are now hopeful they can limit GOP gains. http://bit.ly/2qultoq

 

Why the chances of Democrats taking the Senate are so slim: "The problem for Democrats is that they'd have to win Nevada, Tennessee and an open seat in Arizona to even have a chance of winning the majority. They'd then need to hold on to every one of their seats in jeopardy to seal the deal."  

 

Why Democrats are feeling better than a few weeks ago: The debate over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh appeared to close a path to Democratic victory in the Senate. But the attention then shifted to the pipe bombs sent to prominent Democrats and a shooting at a synagogue in Pittsburgh. "Those events put a renewed focus on the nation's political climate and President Trump's rhetoric."

 

The governors' races:

Via The Hill's Reid Wilson, "The ranks of Republican governors are poised to thin after this year's midterm elections, and some party strategists are bracing for major Democratic gains even in some of the most conservative states in the country." Why: "Virtually all of the most contested races are being fought on Republican turf." http://bit.ly/2zAviFl 

 

If you squint really hard, the name Trump may appear on your ballot:

Via The Hill's Niall Stanage, "Tuesday's midterm elections will provide the first concrete evidence of whether the voters that propelled him to his shock election win in 2016 are standing by him or whether the electorate is beginning to weary of the Trump show after two controversy-filled years." What Trump is expecting: http://bit.ly/2ySDv8j

 

I hope Vladimir Putin feels the glares all the way from the U.S.:

Election systems are facing their first crucial test since the Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. From Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen: Tuesday "is going to be the most secure election we've ever had," but added that with "this dynamic threat, it changes by the minute. ... The main important thing here is that the adversary wins if we don't vote." http://bit.ly/2JIaO2g

 
WHAT TO WATCH

6 p.m. EST: The first polls close. Where: Parts of Indiana and Kentucky.

 

7 p.m. EST: Polls start closing in critical states. For example: Virginia, most of Florida, New Hampshire and Georgia. 

 

8 p.m. EST: More than half of states' polls will have closed. I.e.: This is an important hour to be watching.

 

The New York Times map of which polls close at what times: https://nyti.ms/2APef4d  

 

 
NOTABLE TWEETS

Mile 16? of 26? Bruuuuutal:

 

Watch: http://bit.ly/2RyHz4C

 
ON TAP

The House and Senate are out. 

 

President Trump has no public events on his schedule.

 

4:30 p.m. EST: Vice President Pence and Karen Pence visit the Walter Weed National Military Medical Center.

 

10 a.m. EST Wednesday: Therapy dogs will be on Capitol Hill to help de-stress after the elections. 

 

9:30 p.m. EDT: The Duke-Kentucky men's basketball season opener. What to know: https://es.pn/2RCPyNY

 

Nov. 13: The House and Senate will return.

 
NOW FOR THE FUN STUFF...:

Today is National Nachos Day! Promise me you will celebrate accordingly.

 

Because I laughed out loud at a number of these:

Joshua Benton of Harvard's Nieman Lab has been tweeting fake Massachusetts ballot measures this morning. http://bit.ly/2Pfs0SS

 
FOR EXAMPLE:

"Massachusetts, please vote YES on Question 32, which would ban New Hampshire" http://bit.ly/2D7iN7R

 

"Massachusetts, please vote NO on Question 4, which would declare Necco Wafers a vegetable for school lunch purposes" http://bit.ly/2F5HhRn

 

"Massachusetts, please vote YES on Question 18, which would require most socks to be marketed as 'sox'" http://bit.ly/2Pfs0SS

 

"Massachusetts, please vote NO on Question 21, which would block the proposed merger of @TuftsUniversity and @TuftandNeedle on antitrust grounds" http://bit.ly/2RF4lYJ

 

The full list -- I'm crying: http://bit.ly/2Pfs0SS

 

And because everything has been election-related, here's a dog who could not be happier about the fall. And I'm not exaggerating. http://bit.ly/2SQZZiE

 
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News Alert: GOP braces for potential wipeout in governors' races

 
 
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The ranks of Republican governors are poised to thin after this year’s midterm elections, and some party strategists are bracing for major Democratic gains even in some of the most conservative states in the country.
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Midterm election will render verdict on Trump
President Trump is facing a moment of truth.

Tuesday’s midterm elections will provide the first concrete evidence of whether the voters that propelled him to his shock election win in 2016 are standing by him or whether the electorate is beginning to weary of the Trump show after two controversy-filled years.
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©2016 Capitol Hill Publishing Corp., a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc.