The Hill's Morning Report — Trump’s contrarian view on the midterms | Democrats optimistic after latest elections | Trump’s endorsements cement power but come with risks | GOP Rep. Collins seeks reelection while refuting insider trading charges | Gates’s vivid testimony against Manafort wraps | Trump’s lawyers shoot down latest overture from Mueller | SEC looks into Elon Musk tweet | Quiz Day

© Getty Images     Welcome to The Hill's Morning Report, and happy Thursday! Our daily email gets you up to speed on the most important developments in politics and policy, plus trends to watch, co-created by Jonathan Easley and Alexis Simendinger. (CLICK HERE to subscribe!) On Twitter, find us at @joneasley and @asimendinger.   📺 Hill.TV’s “Rising” program, starting at 8 a.m., includes an interview with Mayor Steve Williams of Huntington, W.Va., who talks about battling the opioid crisis in his community and state. http://thehill.com/hilltv   President Trump is rolling the dice, making the 2018 midterm elections a referendum on his ability to carry the Republican Party to victory against the odds.   In a string of Wednesday tweets, the president sought to reassure his supporters that they cannot lose as long as he’s in charge. The tweets came in the aftermath of a House special election in Ohio that left the GOP candidate clinging to a small lead in a district the president won by about 11 points in 2016.   With election forecasters increasingly confident that Democrats are poised to take over the House, the president insisted that conventional wisdom is wrong and that a “red wave” is building that will protect GOP majorities in both chambers.   Trump’s contrarian view of the midterm elections pits him against the longtime strategists, pollsters and experts in Washington who largely swung and missed on his shocking 2016 presidential victory. The president’s message to supporters is that if he helped Republicans buck history once, why can’t he do it again?   © Twitter     © Twitter     Trump is focusing on two data points that he believes are being ignored by the news media.   First, Republicans have won eight of the 10 special House elections since Trump came into office.   © Twitter     One of the House losses was a bad one – Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pa.) defeated Republican Rick Saccone in a district Trump carried by 20 points in 2016. Republicans also lost a special election in the Senate to replace Attorney General Jeff Sessions in Alabama.   But other than that, Democrats have closed the gap in safely GOP districts, Trump argues, but they haven’t shown they can win.   Republicans are skeptical of this argument. In the Ohio special election, Trump visited the district to campaign for Republican Troy Balderson to boost turnout in the closing days before the election. Outside groups also dumped millions of dollars to pull Balderson across the finish line in a district Republicans have held for most of the past century.       "[I] cannot describe to you how amazing it was that the race was close." – Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) who represented the district from 1983 to 2001   Trump won’t be able to campaign for every House Republican in Balderson’s position – there are nearly six dozen of them. And GOP outside groups, like the Congressional Leadership Fund, which spent nearly $3 million on the race, can’t afford to spend that heavily in every district.   “This remains a very tough political environment and moving forward, we cannot expect to win tough races when our candidate is being outraised.” – Congressional Leadership Fund executive director Corry Bliss   The Hill: Democrats eyeing smaller magic number for House majority. The Hill: Democrats see wider path to House after tight Ohio race.   Second, Trump believes he has the golden touch. The president has waded into the GOP House primaries to support more than a dozen candidates. None has lost, including the five he backed on Tuesday, although two of those races remain too close to call. Trump did support former Sen. Luther Strange (R-Ala.), defeated in last year’s Alabama Senate primary against Roy Moore.   © Twitter     The Hill’s Jordan Fabian and Reid Wilson have an inside look here at whether Trump’s primaries winning streak will continue in the general election. The case study will be Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R), backed by Trump in the gubernatorial primary despite warnings from Republicans that incumbent Gov. Jeff Colyer (R) was the better general election bet.   The Hill: Trump’s endorsements cement power but come with risks. The New York Times: Trump claims election night credit but it’s not that simple.   Meanwhile, the verdict from election experts and Republicans following Tuesday’s special election was decisive: It’s time for the GOP to panic.       “There’s a real chance that [Democrats] not only win the House, but they win it by 10 or 12 more seats than they need.” - Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), to The New York Times.   They see GOP House members retiring in record numbers; Democratic challengers outraising GOP incumbents; an enthusiasm gap in favor of liberals; and history showing that the party in power will lose seats during the sitting president’s first term.   On Wednesday, election analyst Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics moved another four GOP-held seats toward Democrats. The marquee race in that group involves Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), the No. 4 Republican in the House, whose race is now rated a toss-up.   Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray emails:   “Democratic voter enthusiasm and moderate Republican discontent with Trump have made these special elections very competitive when they should have been cakewalks for the GOP. Imagine what will happen if these trends continue in November in districts where Republicans already were facing a challenge. And as of right now, our polling suggests that’s exactly what the landscape will look like.”   We’ll find out on Nov. 6 whether Trump or the experts got it right.   LEADING THE DAY > Instead of talking about tax cuts, GOP candidates are running ads that motivate with anxiety over illegal immigration, socialism and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (The Associated Press)   >  A former mixed martial arts fighter won the Democratic primary in Kansas’s 3rd Congressional District over a candidate backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (The Hill). That’s more evidence that the Democratic Party’s liberal insurgency has hit a wall in the Midwest (The Washington Post).   > Kobach will not recuse himself from a recount in Kansas governor’s race (The Kansas City Star).   > Record numbers of women have been nominated for governor and Congress this cycle (The Hill).   > Progressives are trying to pull off a second shocking upset in a Democratic primary in two months, this time taking aim at Rep. Michael Capuano (D-Mass.), a 20-year veteran in Congress (The Hill).   Domenico Montanaro: Lessons for both parties in Ohio special election. David Catanese: In Ohio, a wash, not a wave. Sean Trende: Ohio special election is a bad sign for Republicans.    ****   CONGRESS: And speaking of unwanted news for the party in power...   Insider trading: Republican Rep. Chris Collins, 68, of New York was arrested and charged with federal securities fraud on Wednesday related to an Australian pharmaceutical company that counted him as a shareholder and a former director (The Hill). The company, Innate Immunotherapeutics, issued a statement saying it was cooperating with U.S. investigators.   Collins turned himself in to the FBI in Manhattan and announced he would plead not guilty to charges related to insider trading. Part of the federal indictment involves a phone call prosecutors say Collins made to his son during last year’s White House congressional picnic, during which he allegedly passed along an insider tip for stock trading.   © Twitter     Collins, during a news conference on Wednesday night, said he planned to continue his campaign for reelection and called the charges "meritless."   > Speaker Paul Ryan removed the congressman from the House Energy and Commerce Committee pending the results of the criminal probe and/or House Ethics Committee investigation (The Washington Post).   Supreme Court: The National Rifle Association’s legislative lobbying arm this week announced a hefty, seven-figure advertising buy to support the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court (The Washington Examiner) … Planned Parenthood Action Fund has a six-figure ad buy planned to try to defeat the nominee (The Hill).   IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES ➔ INVESTIGATIONS: Trump’s lawyers have rejected the latest overture from special counsel Robert Mueller to have the president sit for an interview (The New York Times). Trump’s legal team is trying to limit the scope of any potential interview and particularly wants to shield the president from answering questions about obstruction of justice.   Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani told The Hill on Tuesday that “it feels like” the two sides are getting close to concluding the negotiating process.   The president has said he has no problem talking to investigators. His legal team has advised him against it.   > Richard Gates, Mueller’s star witness in the case against former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort finished giving testimony on Wednesday against his former boss and mentor.   Reuters: Manafort trial focus shifts to bank fraud as prosecutors near end of case.   It was a dramatic three days on the stand for Gates, who testified that he and Manafort hid millions of dollars in foreign accounts and doctored bank and tax documents.   Manafort’s lawyers sought to raise questions about Gates’s credibility, noting that he pleaded guilty to lying to the special counsel and getting into his personal life and a London flat he rented for a woman with whom he was having an affair.   On Wednesday, the defense argued that Gates has had more affairs than he has previously revealed (The Hill).   Gates has pleaded guilty to two charges of conspiracy and lying to the FBI.   He is cooperating with the special counsel to get a reduced sentence. Manafort faces 18 charges of tax and bank fraud. The case could go to the jury by the end of the week.   ➔ INTERNATIONAL: Sanctions and more sanctions...   Iran: Dismissive of Trump’s threat that the United States will no longer do business with companies doing business with Iran, China and Germany on Wednesday defended their respective commerce with Tehran as transparent and in compliance with United Nations resolutions (Reuters) … Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, conferring with North Korea’s foreign minister, warned the United States cannot be trusted (Reuters).   Russia: In an era when personal letter writing is a dying art, Trump penned a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin on behalf of Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.). Paul, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has been in Moscow for meetings this week (The Hill). (The White House described it as a letter of introduction more than a confidential Trump message to Putin.)   “The letter emphasized the importance of further engagement in various areas including countering terrorism, enhancing legislative dialogue and resuming cultural exchanges.” – Paul   > Separately, the Trump administration on Wednesday hit Russia with new sanctions punishing the government for using a Soviet-era nerve agent against a former Russian spy and Putin critic who lives in Great Britain. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo approved a determination that Moscow violated international law by poisoning Sergei Skripal, who survived (NBC News).   ➔ WHITE HOUSE & ADMINISTRATION:  SEC: Was the Tuesday statement by Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk about possibly taking the company private truthful? And why was his disclosure made on Twitter? The Securities and Exchange Commission is asking those questions, according to The Wall Street Journal.   Treasury: The Hill: Eagerly awaited guidance from the IRS and the Treasury Department about a key portion of last year’s tax law came out Wednesday clarifying the 20-percent deduction for income of non-corporate businesses known as “pass-throughs.” The New York Times reports that tax experts see the rule as largely a victory for business groups, which sought a more generous interpretation of a deduction that’s a bonanza for Americans earning $1 million and up, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation.     DHS: The Hill: The Department of Homeland Security said migration dipped this summer, although families are crossing the border at a higher rate than one year ago, according to data released on Wednesday. Overall, migrant crossings at the southern border fell 7 percent in July, the government reported.   Federal budget: The Hill: The GOP tax cuts enacted last year coupled with this year’s spending decisions resulted in a jump of 20 percent in the deficit in the first 10 months of this fiscal year, the Congressional Budget Office reported. It’s the kind of news that gives many economists and deficit hawks the shivers.   Wages: The Hill: Almost everything but wages seems to have revved in the economy this year. So for political reasons, that’s what Democratic lawmakers prefer to criticize among what they see as the Trump administration’s economic policy vulnerabilities.   Medicare: The Hill: Patient groups worry a new administration idea to lower drug costs by requiring that Medicare patients initially try cheaper drugs will harm their care.   OPINION Kobach should butt out of his own recount — and the Johnson County official behind this mess must go, by The Kansas City Star editorial board. https://bit.ly/2vP6JCN   Kobach is the Republican Party at its worst, by The New York Times editorial board. https://nyti.ms/2Oob8V6   Kavanaugh would strengthen civil liberties protections on the Supreme Court, by Michael DeGrandis, opinion contributor for The Hill. http://bit.ly/2Mreshw   `I was attacked by antifa over breakfast,’ by Charlie Kirk, opinion contributor for The Hill. http://bit.ly/2OUWFB4   WHERE AND WHEN The House is out until after Labor Day.   The Senate is out this week.   The president is enjoying a working vacation in Bedminster, N.J., through Aug. 13. Today, Trump focuses on prison reform during a roundtable discussion with “state leaders.” The president earlier this month embraced a GOP-backed House-Senate compromise measure that includes sentencing reforms (The Hill).   Vice President Pence will visit the Defense Department for a briefing and will speak at 11:15 a.m. during an honor guard ceremony along with Secretary of Defense James Mattis.   The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the producer-price index for July at 8:30 a.m. June’s 3.4 percent increase was the largest year-to-year rise since November 2011.   ELSEWHERE > Workforce diversity: Lawmakers in the congressional caucus that supports historically black colleges and universities, meeting at a conference this week, said they’re working with tech companies to get African American students into the “pipeline” to diversify jobs recruitment (The Hill).   > Identified: The Pentagon on Wednesday gave the sons of Master Sgt. Charles Hobert McDaniel, a former U.S. Army medic from Indiana, the dog tags he wore during the Korean War. McDaniel’s tags were turned over by the North Korean government along with 55 cases of remains that have yet to be identified conclusively (The Hill).   > Around Washington: Former Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff is joining the independent watchdog group Freedom House as chairman of the board of trustees.   > Poison laced inside animal carcasses is a growing threat to Africa’s wildlife: Deadly chemicals are a weapon of choice for herdsmen who see lions, elephants, and other wild animals as threats to livestock and property (National Geographic magazine).   © Twitter     THE CLOSER And finally … because it’s Thursday, we call your attention to the Morning Report QUIZ CONTEST. Notch some newsletter fame on Friday by answering all five questions correctly. Just send your best guesses to jeasley@thehill.com or asimendinger@thehill.com (and please put “Quiz” in your subject line.)   Forty-four years ago, President Nixon become the first U.S. president to resign from office. Let’s test your knowledge of the “Watergate” scandal that led to Nixon’s departure from the White House on this day in 1974.   The burglars cased the Watergate building from a hotel across the street. What is that property today?   A Trader Joe’s A dormitory at George Washington University The Trump International Hotel The Washington Nationals baseball park   During the impeachment process on Capitol Hill, a Republican lawyer acting as a committee investigator asked a question that led to the discovery of the secret White House taping system. Who was that lawyer?   Jeff Sessions Fred Thompson Herbert Kalmbach Orrin Hatch   Who was the last member of the Senate Watergate Committee to leave office?   Ranking member Sen. Howard Baker (R-Tenn.) Chairman Sam Irvin (D-N.C.) Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii) Edward Gurney (R-Fla.)   What former presidential candidate worked on the impeachment process as a staffer on Capitol Hill?   Hillary Clinton Newt Gingrich Jesse Jackson Al Gore   A dozen years ago, who revealed the identity of the secret informant known as “Deep Throat,” naming Mark Felt as the famous source?   Journalists Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward Felt’s memoirist, Ralph de Toledano Nixon’s chief counsel, Charles Colson Felt’s lawyer, John D. O’Connor   © Getty Images     The Morning Report is created by journalists Jonathan Easley jeasley@thehill.com & Alexis Simendinger asimendinger@thehill.com. Suggestions? Tips? We want to hear from you! Share The Hill’s reporting and newsletters, and encourage others to SUBSCRIBE!   To view past editions of The Hill's Morning Report CLICK HERE To receive The Hill's Morning Report in your inbox SIGN UP HERE Morning Report Sign Up FORWARD Morning Report Privacy Policy  |  Manage Subscriptions  |  Unsubscribe Email to a friend  |  Sign Up for Other Newsletters The Hill 1625 K Street, NW 9th Floor, Washington DC 20006 ©2018 Capitol Hill Publishing Corp., a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc.

DAILY DOSE: On the Third Day There Was Peace

First there was One. There was no peace, because there was nothing with which to make peace. There was only One. Then there was Two. There

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Daily Dose

On the Third Day There Was Peace By Tzvi Freeman First there was One. There was no peace, because there was nothing with which to make peace. There was only One. Then there was Two. There was diversity. From this point on, an infinite cacophony of conflict extended in all directions and forever. And on the third day G‑d created peace. Peace is not homogeneity. Peace does not mean that everyone thinks the same way. Peace is when there is diversity that finds a higher Oneness. By Tzvi Freeman From the wisdom of the Lubavitcher Rebbe, of righteous memory; words and condensation by Rabbi Tzvi Freeman. Subscribe and get your dose daily. Or order Rabbi Freeman's book, Bringing Heaven Down to Earth, click here. Print Page   ·   Read Online   ·   Discuss   ·   Share on Facebook This email was sent to: tweatsho.email004@blogger.com Change email address · Manage Subscriptions · Unsubscribe © Copyright Chabad.org · Contact Us · Ask the Rabbi · Privacy Policy · Donate

News Alert: Prosecutors portray GOP member as a brazen lawbreaker

View in your browser     Prosecutors portray GOP member as a brazen lawbreaker According to federal prosecutors, last summer’s jovial congressional picnic at the White House quickly turned south for Rep. Chris Collins. Read the full story here           Did a friend forward you this email? Sign up for News Alerts     Forward News Alerts     You Might Like       Privacy Policy  |  Manage Subscriptions  |  Unsubscribe  |  Email to a friend  |  Sign Up for Other Newsletters   The Hill 1625 K Street, NW 9th Floor, Washington DC 20006 ©2016 Capitol Hill Publishing Corp., a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc.

Election Countdown: Takeaways from too-close-to-call Ohio special election | Trump endorsements cement power but come with risks | Trump claims he went '5 for 5' Tuesday | GOP leader's race now rated as 'toss-up' | Record numbers of women nominated | Latino candidates to play prominent role in 2020

View in your browser     This is Election Countdown, The Hill's weekly newsletter from Lisa Hagen (@LA_Hagen) and Max Greenwood (@KMaxGreenwood) that brings you the biggest stories on the campaign trail. We'd love to hear from you, so feel free to reach out to Lisa at LHagen@thehill.com and Max at MGreenwood@thehill.com. with any questions, comments, criticisms or food recommendations (mostly the latter, please). Click here to sign up for the newsletter.   We're 90 days until the 2018 midterm elections and 818 days until the 2020 elections.   Tuesday (almost) marked the end of the House's competitive special election season. And while the results aren't finalized in Ohio--Republican state Sen. Troy Balderson leads Democrat Danny O'Connor by 1,754 votes--the special election still offers some clues heading into the last three months before the midterms.   Republicans are breathing a (temporary) sigh of relief. President Trump and Republicans have already declared victory and many are saying a "win is a win" regardless of the margin. But Republicans recognize the surge in Democratic enthusiasm especially in places where Trump easily won. Some Republicans are warning that GOP candidates will need to step up their fundraising--and won't be able to rely on the cavalry coming in to save them.   Democrats are feeling great about their midterm prospects. Democrats may not make up the ground they need to clinch a victory in the Ohio special election, but they're still counting it as a win. The party believes it's demonstrated its ability to perform competitively in GOP strongholds. It's places like the 12th district of Ohio that Democrats will need to capture to get the 23 seats needed to retake the House.   Expect a suburban showdown. We went through all the data and found that there are 68 GOP-held seats that are more favorable for Democrats than Ohio's 12th District. Forty-five of those seats are districts that Trump won by a smaller margin than in Ohio. The other 23 GOP-held seats were carried by Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016. A large swath of those districts are in suburbs where Trump's popularity may be waning.   One lingering question is over Trump's role in all of this. He went all-in for Balderson with several tweets and a Trump-style campaign rally. But Balderson's narrow lead calls into question whether the president can be helpful in general election contests.     Primary recap Tuesday night was a breakthrough night for women candidates, with several notching wins in their primary contests.   In Michigan, former state Sen. Gretchen Whitmer coasted to victory in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. And Kansas Democrats nominated state Sen. Laura Kelly to challenge the eventual Republican nominee for governor. Those wins bring the number of women nominated for governorships to 11.   Tuesday's slew of female victories didn't stop at the gubernatorial level. Women candidates picked up nominations in several House races, including Democrats Sharice Davids in Kansas's 3rd District, Gretchen Driskell in Michigan's 7th District, Elissa Slotkin in Michigan's 8th District and Rashida Tlaib in Michigan's 13th District.   While it was a good night for women candidates, it wasn't so good for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The duo issued a series of endorsements ahead of the primaries on Tuesday, but ended the night with little success.   Democrat Brent Welder campaigned with the duo in the weeks before the primary, but was defeated by Davids. Likewise, Abdul El-Sayed lost his bid for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Michigan, despite efforts by Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez to boost him. In Missouri's 1st District, Cori Bush, who was endorsed by Ocasio-Cortez, also came up short in her bid to oust incumbent Rep. Lacy Clay (D) in the primary there.   One candidate backed by the duo, Democrat James Thompson in Kansas' 4th District, though did pull out a win on Tuesday. But Thompson, an attorney who lost last year in a special election against Rep. Ron Estes (R), had long been expected to secure the nomination.   Speaking of endorsements, it's also unclear whether Trump's will continue to carry the weight they have in several past primaries.   Trump's pick in Michigan's GOP gubernatorial primary, John James, emerged victorious on Tuesday night. But Balderson's slight lead over O'Connor left the race in Ohio's 12th District inconclusive. The same held true in Kansas, where Secretary of State Kris Kobach remained locked in a dead heat with Gov. Jeff Colyer in the state's GOP gubernatorial primary, despite winning Trump's endorsement a day earlier.     Race for the White House With former HUD Secretary Julián Castro, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti and Rep. Luis Gutiérrez eyeing potential bids for the White House, Latino candidates are gearing up to play their biggest role yet in presidential politics, The Hill's Rafael Bernal and Amie Parnes report. That could put issues central to the Latino experience, like immigration, at the forefront of the 2020 presidential race. "I think we need a candidate as a community to rally around and also to be a player in the presidential race," said former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D).   Several rumored Democratic contenders for the White House were nowhere to be seen at this year's Iowa State Fair, a known pilgrimage for possible presidential hopefuls. Popular figures like Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and former Vice President Joe Biden opted to campaign through quieter backchannels instead, even as attorney Michael Avenatti and Castro made trips to the state.     Senate showdown DefendArizona, a super PAC led by wealthy donors who opposed Trump early on in his 2016 campaign, is dropping $958,000 to oppose Republican Kelli Ward, who's running against Rep. Martha McSally and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio for the GOP nomination to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), The Arizona Republic reports. Ward has long cast herself as a staunch ally of Trump and has embraced some of his most controversial positions.   Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) asked President Trump to campaign for him in his race against Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D). Cruz, who sparred bitterly with Trump during the 2016 Republican presidential primaries, acknowledged to the Houston Chronicle that his relationship with the president has had "ups and downs," but said he would "welcome" Trump's support on the campaign trail. "I think we are likely to see the president down in Texas before the election," he told the newspaper.     Paper chase Priorities USA Action, a major Democratic super PAC, is spending $1.7 million on August TV ads in key Senate races, according to a source tracking spending. The largest purchase is in Florida, where the group is dropping about $611,000. The other states include: Arizona, Indiana, North Dakota, Nevada, Missouri and Wisconsin.   Red to Blue California, a PAC created by former Democratic congressional candidate Michael Eggman, is dropping more than $175,000 on a mail and digital campaign in California's 4th District to oppose Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.).   The Committee to Defend the President, which is aligned with Trump, has pledged to spend $1 million to boost GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn in her Tennessee Senate bid.   The League of Conservation Voters Victory Fund and United Steelworkers announced a $3.1 million investment in four states with key Senate seats: Arizona, Nevada, Ohio and Montana. That investment will focus on turnout field programs, mailers and advertising.     What we're watching for Hawaii is holding a rare Saturday primary on Aug. 11. The next set of Tuesday primaries are on Aug. 14 in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Connecticut and Vermont.     Coming to a TV near you Candidates and outside groups are rolling out a slew of ad spots, signaling the beginning of what is sure to be a marathon of political advertising ahead of the November elections.   In Arizona's Senate race, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) unveiled a new spot calling to "end the partisan nonsense" and find a solution on health care that includes coverage of pre-existing conditions. And in Ohio, Richard Cordray (D), the former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau chief, is launching the first ad of his general election bid for governor. The spot highlights Cordray's career as a public servant and drops in a clip of former President Barack Obama.   On the GOP side, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is out with its first ad in West Virginia in the 2018 cycle, hitting Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) as a detached Washington insider – and taking aim at the senator's "luxury yacht" docked in D.C.   In Tennessee, Blackburn is touting her ties with Trump in a new ad highlighting his endorsement. The spot features Trump speaking at a rally in Tennessee, and insisting that "we need Marsha Blackburn in the Senate."     Wave watch Sabato's Crystal Ball is shifting Washington's 5th congressional district from leaning Republican to a toss up. The seat is currently held by a member of GOP leadership, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the House Republican Conference chair. McMorris Rodgers has held the seat since 2005 and won by nearly 20 points in 2016.   Trump is set to travel to upstate New York next week, where he'll headline a fundraiser for Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.), Politico reports. Tenney, who has been an outspoken supporter of Trump, is facing a tough challenge from Democrat Anthony Brindisi and her seat is considered among the most vulnerable in the 2018 cycle.   If the Democrats take the House in November, 35 women are next in line to chair committees and subcommittees, nearly triple the amount of women currently in those leadership positions, The Hill's Mike Lillis reports. Democratic women argue this would help gender issues advance in Congress and ultimately encourage bipartisanship.   NBC News's Chuck Todd is predicting that Democrats could gain "40 to 60" seats in the midterms. "Democrats are now heavy favorites to take control of the House," Todd said Wednesday morning on NBC's "Today." "I think the question is, really, the size. Is it 30 seats, 40 seats, 50 seats? They have a night like this, like they did in Ohio, they could win 40 to 60 seats."   Heritage Action for America, a conservative group, on Wednesday identified 12 Republicans and pledged to back them with $2.5 million in ads.     In case you missed it Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), is sounding the alarm over election security, saying she remains "very concerned" about a potential midterm election hack. Her remarks come a week after Senate Republicans foiled an effort to boost funds for election security.   Trump claimed credit for primary and special election victories for the candidates he has publicly supported via social media and at rallies in a series of tweets Wednesday. He says if he finds time to continue campaigning ahead of the November midterms, we will see a "giant red wave." But as The Hill's Reid Wilson and Jordan Fabian report, some of Trump's endorsements come with political risks.   A Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Maryland was asked if he identified as a socialist. Ben Jealous denied, the charge, responding: "Are you f---ing kidding me?" His opponent in the race, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) had called Jealous a "far-left socialist." Jealous later apologized to the reporter who asked him about Hogan's remarks, saying he had used "inappropriate language."   Election Countdown was written by Max Greenwood, Lisa Hagen, Jasper Goodman, Jesus Rodriguez, Maya Lora and Caroline Gardner.           Did a friend forward you this email? Sign up for Campaign Newsletter     Forward Campaign Newsletters       Privacy Policy  |  Manage Subscriptions  |  Unsubscribe  |  Email to a friend  |  Sign Up for Other Newsletters   The Hill 1625 K Street, NW 9th Floor, Washington DC 20006 ©2018 Capitol Hill Publishing Corp., a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc.