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2019年1月3日 星期四

On The Money: Stocks plunge after Apple slashes earnings forecast | GOP senator calls on Congress to end shutdown without border deal | Trump's Fed attacks pose market risks

 
 
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On the Money - The Hill Finance
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Happy Thursday and welcome back to On The Money, where we're excited to guide you through a new Congress. I'm Sylvan Lane, and here's your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line.

See something I missed? Let me know at slane@thehill.com or tweet me @SylvanLane. And if you like your newsletter, you can subscribe to it here: http://bit.ly/1NxxW2N.

Write us with tips, suggestions and news: slane@thehill.com, vneedham@thehill.com, njagoda@thehill.com and nelis@thehill.com. Follow us on Twitter: @SylvanLane, @VickofTheHill, @NJagoda and @NivElis.

 

THE BIG DEAL--Stocks plunge after Apple slashes earnings forecast: Stocks tanked Thursday after Apple slashed its earnings forecast, citing an unexpected drop in global orders caused by trade tensions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 660 points Thursday, while the Nasdaq composite and S&P 500 index dropped 3 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively. A sharp plunge in technology and industrial stocks drove broad losses across the market.

 

Apple's woes: Apple stock fell nearly 10 percent Thursday, a day after CEO Tim Cook announced the company is now projecting first-quarter revenue of $84 billion after initially predicting between $89 billion and $93 billion.

Cook blamed Apple's shortfall on the mounting costs of President Trump's tariffs on steel, aluminum and Chinese imports, along with trouble in emerging market economies. His warning was the latest red flag to indicate a potential global economic slowdown. I've got more on the downturn here.

 

Reactions:

  • "It's not going to be just Apple. There are a heck of a lot of U.S. companies that have sales in China that are going to be watching their earnings being downgraded next year until we get a deal with China." -- Kevin Hassett, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
  • "At some point this had to be done!" -- President Trump about his tough trade actions on China. 

 

LEADING THE DAY

GOP senator calls on Congress to end shutdown without border deal: Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), who faces a potentially tough reelection in 2020, says Congress should fund the federal government, even without a deal to finance President Trump's border wall. 

Gardner is the first Senate Republican to call for ending the partial shutdown without granting Trump's demand for $5 billion to fund a border wall. 

"I think we should pass a continuing resolution to get the government back open. The Senate has done it last Congress, we should do it again today," he said. 

Gardner says then Democrats will face pressure to explain why they don't support more money for border security after they voted to spend an additional $46 billion on the border in 2013. The Hill's Alexander Bolton tells us more here.



The background:

  • All but five Democrats on the Senate Appropriations Committee last year supported a homeland security funding bill that allocated $1.6 billion for border fencing. Democratic leaders have scaled back that offer to $1.3 billion -- the same amount Congress appropriated for fiscal 2018 for border fencing.
  • "We can pass legislation that has the appropriations number in it while we continue to get more but we should continue to do our jobs and get the government open," Gardner said, then "let Democrats explain why they no longer support border security." 
  • But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) says he will not schedule a vote on a clean stopgap funding measure to re-open federal agencies without prior sign-off from the president.
  • Trump made a surprise appearance at the White House briefing room on Thursday after Democrats elected Nancy Pelosi to her second Speakership.
  • "You can call it a barrier, you can call it whatever you want, but essentially we need protection in our country. We're going to make it good. The people of our country want it," he said about his demand for a border wall.

 

The road ahead:

  • Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) warned reporters on Thursday that the partial government shutdown could last for the "long haul," and separately told reporters that the shutdown could last for "months and months."
  • Congressional leadership met with Trump on Wednesday at the White House for a briefing on the border but made no progress toward an agreement. They are expected to meet again on Friday
  • House Democrats later tonight are expected to vote on a package to reopen the government. One measure would fund the Department of Homeland Security through Feb. 8, while another would fund other agencies through the end of fiscal 2019. But McConnell has said that plan is a "total non-starter."

 

Trump's growing anger with Fed chief poses market risks: President Trump would likely find himself in murky legal waters if he attempts to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, but experts say the bigger concern is that any move on that front would ignite a chain of calamities that could derail the global economy and financial markets.

Trump has frequently criticized Powell and the Fed for raising interest rates, and the president has reportedly polled advisers on whether to fire his hand-picked chairman.

While it's uncertain whether Trump could remove Powell, making a drastic move against the central bank's chief policymaker could unleash economic chaos at a time when the president prepares to seek reelection.

"If he were to actually be stupid enough to do it, it would trigger a massive reaction from financial markets that would be catastrophic to his entire presidency," said Daniel Alpert, managing partner at investment firm Westwood Capital. "There will be all sorts of hell to pay." I explain why here.

 

The details:

  • An attempt to fire Powell would be an unprecedented test of the Fed's independence and the laws meant to protect the central bank from politics in Washington. The move could also trigger a staggering stock market meltdown, spark intense congressional backlash and damage the country's role as the world's largest economy.
  • The Fed is considered critical to the stability of the U.S. economy, and its policies have profound influence over foreign counterparts. Analysts say if Trump threatens the Fed's independence, it could throw the global financial system into chaos.
  • Without clear guidance from the Fed, global markets could be roiled by uncertainty and fears of growing instability triggered by internal turmoil at the central bank. Trump's influence would also raise questions about the Fed's loyalty to its dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment.

 

GOOD TO KNOW

  • Senate Finance Committee ranking member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) on Thursday reintroduced a bill that would require President Trump to publicly release his tax returns.
  • The government shutdown will cut U.S. economic output by about 0.1 percent every two weeks, according to the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
  • President Trump on Thursday called Democrats' opposition to his proposed border wall "strictly political" and accused the party of seeking an advantage in the 2020 presidential election as a partial government shutdown entered its 13th day.
  • A top U.S. bank regulator told Reuters on Thursday she had no concerns that stock market volatility will threaten the U.S. banking system, which she said has adequate capital to weather Wall Street's woes.

 

ODDS AND ENDS

  • Businesses are seeking to ease the pain of the federal shutdown for the 800,000 federal workers working without pay with freebies and special programs across the country. 
 
 
 
 
 
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Hillicon Valley: Apple drives rough day for markets | Senate confirms FCC nominees | Federal elections agency back to full strength | China lands craft on far side of the moon

 
 
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Welcome to Hillicon Valley, The Hill's newsletter detailing all you need to know about the tech and cyber news from Capitol Hill to Silicon Valley.

Welcome! Follow the cyber team, Olivia Beavers (@olivia_beavers) and Jacqueline Thomsen (@jacq_thomsen), and the tech team, Harper Neidig (@hneidig). CLICK HERE to subscribe to our newsletter.

 

New Year, New Congress. The House elected Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to her second Speakership as Democrats took charge in the chamber. 

 

DON'T GO LOOKING AT YOUR 401Ks FOR A WHILE: Stocks tanked Thursday morning after Apple slashed its earnings forecast, citing an unexpected drop in global orders caused by trade tensions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped as many as 650 points Thursday morning, while the Nasdaq composite and S&P 500 index dropped 2.7 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. A sharp plunge in technology and industrial stocks drove broad losses across the market in the first hours of trading.

Apple stock plummeted 10 percent lower Thursday morning, a day after CEO Tim Cook announced the company is now projecting first-quarter revenue of $84 billion after initially predicting between $89 billion and $93 billion.

Cook blamed Apple's shortfall on the mounting costs of President Trump's tariffs on steel, aluminum and Chinese imports, along with trouble in emerging market economies. His warning was the latest red flag to indicate a potential global economic slowdown.

"While we anticipated some challenges in key emerging markets, we did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China," Cook wrote in a letter to investors.

"In fact, most of our revenue shortfall to our guidance, and over 100 percent of our year-over-year worldwide revenue decline, occurred in Greater China across iPhone, Mac and iPad."

 

How the day ended: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 660 points down, with the S&P 500 down 2.48 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq down 3.04 percent.

 

White House sees more trouble ahead: Kevin Hassett, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, on Thursday, said that plenty of other U.S. companies will face losses in China until Beijing agrees to a new trade deal.

"It's not going to be just Apple," Hassett said in an interview on CNN. "There are a heck of a lot of U.S. companies that have sales in China that are going to be watching their earnings being downgraded next year until we get a deal with China."

More on his remarks here.

 

Trump weighs in: Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping face a self-imposed deadline of March 1 to strike a deal to lift tariffs and other trade barriers. Trump sought to calm the market Thursday, insisting on Twitter that his administration is "doing well in various Trade Negotiations currently going on."

"At some point this had to be done!" Trump tweeted.

 

Read more here. Also, more on Apple's rough day here.

 

CONFIRMED: The Senate returned the Federal Communications Commission to full strength Wednesday night, confirming a bipartisan pair of nominees to full five-year terms.

Brendan Carr, a sitting Republican commissioner, was reconfirmed to a new term and Democratic nominee Geoffrey Starks was confirmed after a months-long delay in a voice vote Wednesday night, on the last day of the session.

Their confirmations had been delayed after Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) had placed a hold on Carr's nomination, which had been paired with Starks, over a dispute about the agency's rural health care efforts. Sullivan agreed to release the hold last month after talks with FCC Chairman Ajit Pai.

"The agreement to pair and confirm these nominees finally gives us a full FCC to decide important questions about spectrum management, the deployment of broadband to underserved communities, and building next-generation wireless networks," Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), the chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, said in a statement. "I congratulate Geoffrey Starks and Brendan Carr on this Senate action allowing them to turn their attention toward work benefiting the public."

Starks was nominated by President Trump in June of last year. He had been serving as the assistant bureau chief of the FCC's Enforcement Bureau after leaving the Justice Department in 2015, where he was a senior counsel to Deputy Attorney General Jim Cole.

Carr, who was confirmed to a partial term in 2017, had previously been a legal adviser to Pai before briefly serving as the FCC's general counsel.

More on the FCC here.

 

YOU ALSO MADE IT: The Senate late Wednesday confirmed by voice vote a pair of commissioners to the Election Assistance Commission (EAC), giving the agency a quorum for the first time since last March.

Benjamin Hovland and Donald Palmer were among several nominees passed in the final hours of the Senate session. If they had not been confirmed before noon Thursday, when the 115th Congress adjourns, both nominees would have to go through the confirmation process again.

Having a quorum means the EAC can now carry out major policy moves. The small federal agency -- created in 2002 to help state and local officials administer elections -- had only two commissioners since March, one short of the three needed to take on significant initiatives.

Hovland and Palmer said during their confirmation hearing last month that their likely first moves after joining the EAC would be to review its standards for voting machine vendors.

That statement was echoed by current EAC Commissioners Christy McCormick and Thomas Hicks during an interview with The Hill last month.

 

In the spotlight: The EAC has faced criticism for not taking the threat of Russian interference in the 2016 election as seriously as some say it should, and Republican lawmakers have attempted to close down the small agency in previous years, claiming that it was unnecessary.

However, lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have recently pointed to the commission as being able to help lead the charge in securing elections from outside interference.

More on the agency here.

 

CUE THE ELECTRIC SLIDE: General Motors (GM) reached 200,000 in electric vehicle sales in 2018, prompting the phasing out of a tax-credit for buyers of those vehicles, according to Reuters.

GM hit the 200,000-mark in the fourth quarter of 2018, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing a person briefed on the matter.

The $7,500 tax-credit, according to Reuters, will be phased out over the next 15 months. It will drop to $3,750 in April before sliding to $1,875 in October. It will then be completely gone by April of next year, Reuters reported.

GM, which has previously lobbied Congress to extend the tax-credit, declined to comment to Reuters.

The phasing out of the tax-credit comes after GM in November announced it would cut 15,000 jobs and close up to four factories in the U.S.

Those layoffs drew the ire of President Trump, who said last month that the company is "not going to be treated well" following the layoffs.

"To tell me a couple of weeks before Christmas that she's going to close in Ohio and Michigan, not acceptable to me," Trump said in a Fox News interview at the time, referring to GM CEO Mary Barra.

Barra has previously called on Congress to expand the tax credit, Reuters noted.

More here.

 

E.T. PHONE HOME: A Chinese spacecraft on Thursday landed on the dark side of the moon, marking the first time in history a country has sent a rover to the part of the moon that perpetually faces away from the Earth.

The Associated Press reported that the China National Space Administration called the touchdown of the Chang'e 4 a "new chapter in human lunar exploration." The spacecraft touched down at 10:26 a.m. China time and was announced to the public on a state news broadcast at noon.

Only China, the former Soviet Union and the United States have sent spacecraft to the surface of the moon, though previous explorations have landed on the near side that faces Earth.

The AP reported that China plans to send a Chang'e 5 mission to the moon next year, with the goal of having it bring back samples to Earth. The country also has ambitions to launch a Mars rover in the next decade, the AP reported.

China's rapid progress in space exploration comes as the Trump administration has given the subject a renewed focus.

More on the Chinese mission here.

 

A LIGHTER CLICK: Only in Australia.

 

NOTABLE LINKS FROM AROUND THE WEB:

Netflix's new interactive format for certain films also leads to insightful user data. (The Verge)

GM's self-driving unit is exploring food delivery service with DoorDash. (CNBC)

When glasses become equipped with cameras. (Engadget)

Overlooked no more: Karen Sparck Jones, who established the basis for search engines. (The New York Times)

Google moves closer to creating 'Minority Report'-style sensors for controlling devices with hand gestures (The Washington Post)

 
 
 
 
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SearchCap: Bing robots.txt advice, technical SEO frameworks, more

 


 
Featured story
 

Robots.txt tip from Bing: Include all relevant directives if you have a Bingbot section

 

Jan 3, 2019 by Barry Schwartz

Pay close attention to the directives you give to Bingbot and other search engines in your robots.txt files.

 
From Search Engine Land
A simple 3-step framework for improving your technical SEO
Jan 3, 2019 by Aleh Barysevich

In a world where everyone's fighting for relevance in search, technical SEO is a Swiss army knife you can use to improve your site's usability, crawlability, indexation and ultimately rankings. But it's easy to get lost in the weeds while working through technical SEO fixes — many SEOs reach a point of diminishing returns where they keep making small changes that achieve frustratingly little. 

From Marketing Land
 
Cision buys Falcon.io, adding social management features to its earned media stack
  Jan 3, 2019 by Barry Levine

The company can now offer a full social media listening and management suite, along with its PR tools.

 
Facebook adds new reporting for Click-to-WhatsApp ads
  Jan 3, 2019 by Amy Gesenhues

Ad campaign objectives now include traffic, conversions (for website), and post engagement.

 
Retail in 2019: Store evolution, tech adoption and what it will take to win
  Jan 3, 2019 by Greg Sterling

Three retail experts weigh in on the the future of the store.


 
 

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